World Energy Outlook 2006

Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment and Final Energy Savings by Region
in the Alternative Policy Scenario*
billion dollars (2005)
150
100
50
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
–1000
2030
Additional demand-side investment in OECD
Additional demand-side investment in non-OECD
Reduced final energy consumption in OECD (right axis)
Reduced final energy consumption in non-OECD (right axis)
* Compared with the Reference Scenario.
–500
Transport
Additional investment in the transport sector amounts to $1.1 trillion. Half of
this investment, or $560 billion, goes to light-duty vehicles. Improved efficiency
in trucks and more use of buses and high-speed trains account for another
$330 billion, while investments in aviation account for some $190 billion.
Although aviation accounts for almost 20% of the total additional transport
investment, it achieves only 11% of the total reduction in energy demand in the
transport sector. The high share of aviation in the total is a function of the high
cost of improving average fleet fuel efficiency for aircraft.
OECD countries make 60% of the incremental transport investment, a similar
share across transport modes. This high share is a function of the higher cost
of increasing fuel economy in OECD countries and their larger share
of cumulative vehicles sales over the projection period.
A variety of technologies contributes to energy savings. In the Alternative
Policy Scenario, some of the improvements in the technology of the internal
combustion engine (ICE) are assumed to be applied to increase vehicle power,
200 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
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© OECD/IEA, 2007