World Energy Outlook 2006

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now and 2030. Proven reserves of crude oil and natural gas liquids are much smaller in relation to current consumption, covering barely 42 years. Although that is enough to meet all the oil consumed in the Reference Scenario through to 2030, more oil would need to be found were conventional production not to peak before then. Even if it were to do so, non-conventional sources of oil – including oil sands and gas- and coal-to-liquids plants – could meet any shortfall in conventional oil supply if the necessary investment is forthcoming. There is no lack of uranium for projected nuclear power production in the Reference Scenario for the next several decades at least. There is also significant remaining potential for expanding hydropower and energy from biomass and other renewable sources. The Middle East and North Africa, which have massive hydrocarbon resources (IEA, 2005a), are expected to meet much of the growth in world oil and gas demand over 2004-2030. Latin America (especially Venezuela and Brazil), Africa and the transition economies also increase production of both oil and gas. Conventional oil production declines in most other regions, including OECD North America and Europe. Production of natural gas, resources of which are more widely dispersed than oil, increases in every region other than Europe. Although there are abundant coal reserves in most regions, increases in coal production are likely to be concentrated in China, India, the United States, Australia, South Africa, Indonesia, and Colombia, where extraction, processing and transportation costs are lowest. The production prospects for each fuel are discussed in more detail in later chapters. Inter-Regional Trade International energy trade is expected to grow steadily over the Outlook period to accommodate the increasing mismatch between the location of demand and that of production. In the Reference Scenario, the OECD accounts for 23% of the total increase in world primary energy demand, but only 5% of the growth in output. As a result, exports from non-OECD regions to OECD regions expand by 47%. Total OECD imports, including trade between OECD regions, will also increase by 47% between 2004 and 2030 (Table 2.2). By 2030, 43% of all the primary energy consumed in the OECD is imported. The transition economies and the developing countries in aggregate become bigger net exporters. Trade between major non-OECD regions also increases sharply. The Middle East sees the biggest increase in energy exports, while imports grow most in developing Asia. Almost all of the projected increase in inter-regional energy trade is in the form of conventional oil, gas and coal, but biofuels make a growing contribution. Trade in electricity remains minimal. Oil remains the most traded fuel in both percentage and volume terms (Figure 2.5). By 2030, 54% of all the oil Chapter 2 - Global Energy Trends 73 © OECD/IEA, 2007 2
Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Major Region (Mtoe) 2004 2015 2030 OECD 1 657 2 123 2 444 Coal 113 117 98 Oil 1 272 1 569 1 712 Gas 272 436 634 Transition economies –492 –641 –745 Coal –27 –39 –46 Oil –345 –476 –541 Gas –120 –126 –158 Developing countries –1 228 –1 549 –1 776 Coal –70 –71 –45 Oil –1 007 –1 168 –1 256 Gas –152 –310 –476 Note: Trade in other forms of energy is negligible. Negative figures are net exports. Total imports do not always equal total exports because of processing gains, international marine bunkers and statistical discrepancies. Figure 2.5: Share of Inter-Regional Trade in World Primary Demand by Fossil Fuel in the Reference Scenario Gas Oil Coal 2004 2030 2004 2030 2004 2030 11% trade as % of world demand 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 Mtoe 4 000 5 000 6 000 Note: Takes account of all trade between WEO regions. 74 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO 15% 48% 11% 20% 54% Production consumed within each region Traded between regions © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
Page 23 and 24: List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
Page 25 and 26: 6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
Page 27 and 28: 9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
Page 29 and 30: 13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
Page 31 and 32: Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
Page 33 and 34: 11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Page 37 and 38: World Energy Outlook Series World E
Page 39 and 40: half of the increase in global prim
Page 41 and 42: Will the investment come? Meeting t
Page 43 and 44: World primary energy demand in 2030
Page 45 and 46: above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Page 51 and 52: would be needed (over and above tho
Page 55 and 56: Government Policies and Measures As
Page 57 and 58: over the projection period, as it d
Page 59 and 60: for heating, and faster improvement
Page 61 and 62: Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
Page 63 and 64: dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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Page 67 and 68: Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
Page 69 and 70: een revised down and that for coal
Page 71 and 72: Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
Page 73: Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Page 83 and 84: illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
Page 87 and 88: Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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Page 93 and 94: Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
Page 95 and 96: the Organization of the Petroleum E
Page 97 and 98: A lack of reliable information on p
Page 99 and 100: Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
Page 101 and 102: mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
Page 103 and 104: Investment Cumulative global invest
Page 105 and 106: amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
Page 107 and 108: Environmental policies and regulati
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Page 113 and 114: Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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Page 121 and 122: Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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