World Energy Outlook 2006

Alternative Policy Scenario: European Union
Electricity generation (TWh) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total generation 2 444 3 154 3 484 3 681 0.9 0.6 –5.2 –14.5
Coal 1 012 975 955 657 –0.2 –1.5 –5.9 –43.6
Oil 205 131 121 53 –0.7 –3.4 –4.0 –5.3
Gas 159 605 617 856 0.2 1.3 –29.0 –35.7
Nuclear 778 988 995 822 0.1 –0.7 12.3 45.7
Hydro 271 300 369 405 1.9 1.2 2.8 5.2
Renewables (excluding hydro) 19 156 427 888 9.6 6.9 1.9 10.7
Biomass and waste 14 90 144 191 4.4 2.9 –0.0 –5.2
Wind 1 59 261 586 14.5 9.2 2.1 10.8
Geothermal 3 6 8 17 3.5 4.3 3.6 23.9
Solar 0 1 12 77 22.0 16.8 19.8 54.2
Tide and wave 1 1 2 18 11.5 14.6 25.6 107.1
Capacity (GW) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total capacity 723 833 1 000 1.3 1.3 –5.9 –13.7
Coal 191 151 109 –2.1 –2.1 –18.8 –51.7
Oil 71 68 29 –0.5 –3.4 – –
Gas 146 198 281 2.8 2.6 –15.7 –27.4
Nuclear 131 127 107 –0.3 –0.8 11.3 45.5
Hydro 131 146 157 1.0 0.7 2.0 3.7
of which pumped storage 28 28 28 0.0 0.0 – –
Renewables (excluding hydro) 52 144 317 9.6 7.2 2.6 8.9
Biomass and waste 16 25 33 4.3 2.9 0.6 –5.3
Wind 34 108 223 11.0 7.5 1.6 2.8
Geothermal 1 1 2 3.6 4.4 3.6 23.7
Solar 1 9 53 20.6 15.9 21.8 54.4
Tide and wave 0 0 5 6.4 12.2 24.9 109.2
CO2 emissions (Mt) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total CO2 emissions 3 808 3 847 3 879 3 465 0.1 –0.4 –4.2 –17.8
Coal 1 666 1 211 1 102 711 –0.9 –2.0 –3.0 –36.8
Oil 1 571 1 675 1 697 1 551 0.1 –0.3 –3.5 –9.6
Gas
Power generation
571 962 1 080 1 204 1.1 0.9 –6.2 –12.6
and heat plants 1 382 1 366 1 383 1 080 0.1 –0.9 –5.9 –32.2
Coal 1 128 980 945 605 –0.3 –1.8 –3.0 –39.9
Oil 158 100 92 39 –0.8 –3.5 –4.1 –6.5
Gas 94 285 346 436 1.8 1.6 –13.5 –20.0
Total final consumption 2 264 2 306 2 330 2 227 0.1 –0.1 –3.3 –9.5
Coal 500 201 134 90 –3.6 –3.0 –2.8 –9.2
Oil 1 304 1 457 1 491 1 398 0.2 –0.2 –3.7 –10.3
of which transport 741 924 940 927 0.2 0.0 –4.5 –10.7
Gas 458 649 705 738 0.8 0.5 –2.4 –7.9
Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 543
© OECD/IEA, 2007
A