D-A-CH TAGUNG 2011 - SGEB

For every particular generation (earthquake scenario), the between-earthquake variabilitywill change the level of ground motion at all locations in similar ways (i.e., the level will belower or higher than the median estimates from the predictive equations). A larger level ofground motion at all locations will cause greater damage everywhere and higher total lossvalues, and vice versa. Thus, if all of the ground motion variability is treated as between-event(ρ η = 1.0), this would lead to a high variability of total loss. The mean and the median values ofpossible losses are not equal to each other in this case.Figure 5. Characteristics of loss distribution (Probability Distribution Functions, PDF, and CumulativeProbability Functions, CPF) for the extreme cases estimated using 10,000 simulations.For every particular generation, the within-earthquake variability will lead to fluctuations ofground motion from one location to another, stronger than the median estimates at one site andweaker at another site (Figure 3b). Even if the large level of ground motion causes substantialdamage at some locations, the damage at other locations may be small. Thus, if all of theground motion variability is treated as within-earthquake (ρ η = 0.0), the variability of the total13167