D-A-CH TAGUNG 2011 - SGEB

The following is the damage grade in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium in terms ofdamage grade. This is a function of the exposure, hazard (site soil type (V s,30 ), distance, GMPEused), vulnerability (seismic code used, building type etc.). Latitude is shown on the Y axis,longitude on the X axis and damage grade in the legend. The diagram also shows the economicloss per square kilometre in terms of millions of Euros. It can be seen that the diagram isdominated by the cities of Cologne, Düsseldorf, Duisberg, Essen, Bonn and Monchengladbach.The centre of the city has greater infrastructure and therefore there is a greater damage persquare kilometre in economic terms (this is not necessarily dependent on mean damage ratio).As seen in the damage classification diagram, the damage grade is a greater function of faultdependence, site class, vulnerability and distance.Figure 3: Damage grade map and economic loss (€mill per km 2 ) of the Northern Rhine region.The median estimate of total economic loss from the earthquake is shown. From theStromeyer [23] intensity relationships, this tends to underestimate the probable intensities atmany locations as the intensity results are less at locations a lot closer than the 1756 Dürenearthquake. Even with the underestimate, the median result for the [23] WLQ equation isapproximately €20 billion direct economic loss. From the Bakun and Scotti [22] relationship,the median economic loss is approximately €40 billion direct. This shows the effect of adetailed site effects analysis for certain historic scenarios. When looking at 1 standarddeviation, the [23] CHIQ can be as low as €2.9bn or as high as €59bn, and the [23] WLQ from€4.0bn to €70bn. For the [22] relations, the same orders of magnitude are seen. This shows theincredible uncertainties in macroseismic intensity relationships.Table 7: Predicted Final Economic Loss from the Mw5.7 scenario earthquake(in € million)LowerMedianResLowerMedianTotalMedianResidentialMedianTotalUpperMedianResUpperMedianTotalSponheuer (1960)- [19] 8215 18475Ambraseys (1985)- [20] 14207 30009Hinzen and Oemisch (2001)- [21] 14893 34682B&S Rhine (2006)- [22] 9246 19410 12555 25458 17173 33882B&S SCR (2006)- [22] 6218 12794 13465 25841 27949 49939S&G WLQ (2009)- [23] 5338 13513 8555 19951 12725 27696S&G CHIQ (2009)- [23] 3693 9634 6892 16050 11358 24261Düren [15] Full Site Eff. (2010) 15015 32574 18368 37739 20182 46367Thus, the total direct economic loss from such an earthquake is preferred between €32.5billion and €46.4 billion, depending on the choice of intensity prediction equation. When takingdifferences in vulnerability, the difference can be larger. This shows the uncertainties in suchanalysis for a single estimate. Using industrialised nations with large losses, the average921