D-A-CH TAGUNG 2011 - SGEB

indirect losses are in the order of 0.83 times the direct loss for a 2-year period through the workof [14]. Depending on damage to local resources, follow-on effects and also the industry in theNRW area as well as over the border, losses could be over 1.21 times the direct loss for the 5-year period. This gives a total approaching between €72 billion and €102.5 billion. This isabout as expected for a Newcastle, Australia 1989 event for a region (€4 billion (2011HNDECI-adjusted)) with significantly more exposure and much greater economic output. Theimpacted region with I>6 from this Mw5.7 Bedburg Scenario event has approximately 30 timesthe population of the I>6 region in the Newcastle event.The following are the top 5 cities in terms of total economic loss from the earthquake. Theyare all located in Germany. Cologne is found to have the highest loss with €6.185 billion directloss.Table 8: The top 5 settlements in terms of economic loss in terms of Düren Site Effect Relation (Upper).NameLat. LongPopulationPop MMI Mean Damage Residential Total Loss(°N) (°E)Class mean (%) Loss (€mill) (€mill)Neuss 51.20 6.68 162214 P4 7.60 9.61 1012 1507Düsseldorf 51.22 6.77 609313 P5 6.77 1.50 762 2111Köln 50.94 6.95 1031770 P5 7.16 3.28 2827 6185Krefeld 51.35 6.55 253519 P4 7.16 4.83 795 1311Duisburg 51.43 6.77 536685 P5 6.70 1.37 617 1739Additional economic losses due to Rhine Valley traffic reduction, possible damage to locksystems, landslides/rockslide potential and other features are not included. It could also beexpected that landslides (small landslips, minor rockslips, scree slope falls) and minorliquefaction effects could occur. Minor cracks in the ground could also occur. Although thisregion has a low fragility and high resilience, earthquakes are not very common, and thusrecovery, reconstruction, business interruption and other indirect effects of earthquakes mayplay a greater role due to the lack of preparedness for an earthquake of this scale. In addition,due to material and labour shortage, demand surge may occur, as has been seen in many otherdeveloped countries post-disaster.The economic loss to coal mining and other energy systems could be substantial. A largecoal mine is located in the Northern Rhine region and losses due to business interruption mayoccur. Kraftwerk Niederaußem is the closest coal electricity plant to the fault, with a totalof 3864MW per year. This is located at Bergheim, very close to the epicentre of the fault.If there is delayed production, then this could cause high losses. For the Mw5.7 Bedburgearthquake, a worst case scenario is assumed where the entire population of a town is located inthat township at the time of the earthquake i.e. the total population is exposed. This relationshipis based on past earthquakes and, due to the large return period of earthquakes in Germany, astable based Human Development Index function is used as an assumption. Between 98-166deaths and 880-1791 injuries are the median social loss estimates for this earthquake scenario.5 CONCLUSIONThe study by [36] showing the damage for the 1878 Tollhausen earthquake in Cologne andalso the 475 year return period probabilistic earthquake damage show that the damage grade inCologne from the Mw5.7 Bedburg earthquake scenario is greater than that of the 475 yearreturn period. The Mw5.7 Bedburg earthquake results of €6 billion direct loss for Cologne aresignificantly less than the M6.0 earthquake loss results of USD14 billion (1998) from [4] which2210