D-A-CH TAGUNG 2011 - SGEB

12. D-A-CH Tagung – Erdbeben und BaudynamikC. Könke (Hrsg.)Hannover, Deutschland, 15.–16. September 2011DETERMINISTIC EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS FOR THE NORTHERNRHINE REGIONJ. E. Daniell* and F. Wenzel* [1] General Sir John Monash Scholar, The General Sir John Monash Foundation, Level 5,30 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia 3000.[2] Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), KarlsruheInstitute of Technology (KIT), Hertzstrasse 16, 76187, Karlsruhe, Germany.[3] SOS Earthquakes, Earthquake-Report.com web service, Cederstraat 21, 2800 Mechelen,Belgium.E-mail: j.e.daniell@gmail.comKeywords: earthquake, risk, Germany, Northern Rhine, earthquake loss estimationAbstract. For the first time an estimate of total damage for the entire region affected caused bya sizeable earthquake in the Northern Rhine region is estimated across a number of countriesin detail. We design a scenario event with a magnitude of Mw = 5.7-5.8 (I 0 =8) at the Erft blockstructure near Cologne which represents a return period of approximately 1500 years. Themethodology for assessing the damage is intensity-based and relies on an attenuation relationcompatible with the observations during the 1756 Düren earthquake. It includes site effectsestimated from slope angles according to [1]. With the building and vulnerability classificationof the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS) and an estimated inventory of the building stock,we provide upper and lower bounds for the loss to residential buildings but add other sectorssuch as commerce, the public sector, energy supply etc. The estimated loss, dependent onassumptions of direct damage, ranges between €10-50 Billion. The main sources of uncertaintyare attenuation and site effects in terms of intensities. With indirect losses, the total lossescould approach in the order of €75-100 billion. Casualties (dead and injured) will rangebetween 1000 and 2000. The total damage numbers are in the order of magnitude of economiclosses of the Northridge 1994 earthquake. Due to the low mean damage ratios, casualties willremain significantly lower. The Newcastle 1989 earthquake provides a likely comparison withthe northern Rhine Region although the latter has a much increased, exposed population andindustrial output.113