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Further reading
Edgell, D.L. �1995) `A barrier-free future for
tourism?', Tourism Management 16�2): 107±10.
�Interprets implementation of the General
Agreement on Trade in Services for tourism.)
Smith, G. �1994) `The North American Free Trade
Agreement �NAFTA) and the implications for
the U.S. tourism industry,' Tourism Management,
October: 323±6. �Identifies aspects of trade in
tourism services under NAFTA and highlights
implications for the US industry.)
trekking
GINGER SMITH, USA
DAVID L. EDGELL, USA
Walking on trails is increasingly popular among
tourists with better accessibility to areas of the
world such as Nepal and the hill country of
Thailand. This practise is also known as tramping.
Overuse on certain routes, such as the Mt
Everest base camp, has caused severe negative
environmental impacts including deforestation and
trailside litter. Conversely, utilising locals as guides
can successfully reduce activities such as poaching
in protected areas.
trend
CHARLES G. JOHNSTON, NEW ZEALAND
Forecasting trends consists of trying to foresee
how tourism will evolve in the future so that
public authorities can plan and design appropriate
policies and so that private companies can prepare
and respond to projected changes. Many different
trends are of interest and importance in tourism,
but those dealing with demand and spending
receive special attention. For these, variables used
include the number of tourists, spending per tourist
and the sector's share of the gross national product.
In order to calculate trends, different methods
are used. These may be of a quantitative or
qualitative nature. Quantitative methods of forecasting
can be divided between those which use
techniques based on economic theory and those
which are purely statistical. Among those most
commonly used methods are time series analysis,
models of gravity, models of action/auditing/
intervention and the Box±Jenkins I method, along
with market participation and simulations. All
these methods use a single or dual variate and
are applied to just one dependent variable, either
the number of tourists or tourism spending.
Econometric models include price levels and
fictitious variables for unusual occurrences in
demand of tourist flows. Often the reason for
these analyses is to offer explanations rather than
to make predictions, although the results are good
enough to forecast trends in international
tourism. Sectoral analysis can include input±
output models or multiple interactive econometric
models �like the Cambridge model or the
Australian ORANI model). These models contemplate
not only tourist demand, but also
investment, income, taxes and other variables
which contribute to tourism's share of the
economy. Amongst qualitative methods used,
mentions can be made of the brain-storming
technique, the Delphi method and the executiveconsensus
method, all of which have been used by
commercial organisations to predict their own
demand.
See also: competitive advantage; market
analysis; marketing research
Trinet
Trinet 605
ANTONI SASTRE ALBERTI, SPAIN
Trinet is the acronym for Tourist Research
Information Network, an electronic bulletin board
designed for researchers and educators in the field
of tourism. Approximately seven hundred tourism
researchers in over ninety countries are connected
through Trinet. Founded by Jafar Jafari and
Pauline Sheldon, communications on this network
are varied and include announcements of conferences
and other tourism research related events,
tables of contents of tourism journals, discourses on
tourism research related issues, grant and employment
opportunities, requests for information and
details of upcoming publications. Discourses have
included topics such as ecotourism, definitions of