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北京大学英语新闻网/Peking University News PKU Langrun Forecast: World Gives Ear to China PKU NEWS 2005--11—26 http://ennews.pku.edu.cn/news.php?s=133101190 Beijing, Peking University, Nov. 26th, 2005: Everbright Securities Co., Ltd. and Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd., etc. are all well-known big names. Recently, under the invitation from CCER, these celebrated macroeconomic research institutions put forward a specific forecast—Langrun Forecast. What does Langrun Forecast Predict? At CCER‘s decade celebration, Leaders of CCER agreed to make the decision to set up ―CCER China Economic Observer‖, so as to conduct continuous observe of macroeconomics, economic reform and investment environment as well as demand, supply and price of bulk trade in China. As a significant part of ―CCER China Economic Observer‖, Langrun Forecast will combine the forecast results—made by 15 famous institutions—of 10 indexes, such as GDP, CPI, interest rate and exchange rate, to provide an objective and fair forecast. Since the center of the forecast—CCER was located at Langrun Garden—the past Royal Garden, the forecast was named as Langrun Forecast. In addition to the forecast, there will also hold a seminar every quarter, where senior economists will discuss the big issues of China economy. The outcome will be published on Newsletter as soon as possible. Meanwhile, the details of the seminar will be shared with the society freely. 15 Institutions Participate So far, 14 institutions have been invited to participate in Langrun Forecast, including Everbright Securities Co., Ltd., Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd., Unirule Institute of Economics, Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics in Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, State Information Center, Center for China in the World Economy of Tsinghua University and China Society of Macroeconomics etc. Proficient in macroeconomic data analysis, Prof. Song Guoqing will participate in the forecast, on 864
北京大学英语新闻网/Peking University News behalf of CCER. ―A Convincing Voice of Macroeconomic Forecast‖ ―Besides the powerful academic research institutions and overall indexes, Langrun Forecast will adopt weighted average as well. Each institution will be given a weight according to each forecast‘s accuracy in the previous quarter. The more accurate it is, the more weight it will has. Thus, the ultimate forecast is a weighted average, which approaches the fact more closely.‖ Prof. Lufeng of CCER said. Also, Prof. Lu mentioned that there was still a long way to go for Langrun forecast to catch up with the ones made by developed countries. However, with the adjustment and improvement of Langrun Forecast, it would definitely become a convincing voice of China‘s macroeconomic forecast in the near future. Edited By : Zhang Yuan Translated By : Sun Yifei Source : Beidanews(in Chinese) Related Topic : Related News : Related Feedback: 865
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