inostrani kapital kao faktor razvoja zemalja - Ekonomski fakultet u ...

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t1=-6,654; t2=-0,765 ; t3=-2,774 ; t4=7,511 ; F= 31,303 ;
2
F critical=9,12 α = 0,
05 R = 0,96
Regression analyses demonstrate that the growth rate of the Western Balkan
economies largely depends on the gross fixed capital formation. The coefficient is
statistically significant. The impact of TFCI is negative, but statistically
insignificant at α = 0,
05 . The whole regression is statistically significant,
according to the F test. R square is 0,96 so that 96% of the variation in the
regression can be explained by the variations in the data.
The impact of FDI on the achieved growth rates in the Western Balkan is
vague. The best example is Croatia that has been most successful in attracting FDI,
but has achieved moderate growth rates in the overall transition period. More
comprehensive quantitative analyses for all countries in the region have been
constrained by the lack of coherent and comparable data set because of frequent
changes and structural brakes (Granger causality and cointegration).
Chart 2: FDI, Portfolio investment and other investment in the Western Balkan economies
FDI, portfolio and other investment in Albania, Croatia and
Macedonia
5000,00
4000,00
3000,00
2000,00
1000,00
0,00
-1000,00
-2000,00
Other investment
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Foreign direct investment
Portfolio investment
Empirical estimation shows that FDI flows may produce small investment
spillovers in host economies for the full sample or for the group of transitional
countries, which have either completed the transition process or are in its final
stages. In ten CIS countries and Albania, however, FDI flows crowd in domestic
investment (Mileva, 2008).
Inward capital flows have positively influenced gross fixed capital formation,
but their influence is insignificant. This is, in large part a result of the sector
distribution of FDI flows that have been directed to the service sectors such as