Проблемы развития внешнеэкономических связей и привлечения иностранных инвестиций: региональный аспект, 2010Таким образом, каждый результат по каждой сомнительной альтернативе взвешивается по двум этим критериям. На что решитсяоперирующая сторона, зависит от ее отношения к риску, от того, в каких пропорциях она готова обменять дополнительные порции риска надополнительные порции выигрыша.СПИСОК ИСТОЧНИКОВ1. Мелкумов Я.С. Экономическая оценка эффективности инвестиций/ Мелкумов Я.С. – М.: ИКЦ «ДИС», 1997. – 159с.2. Первозванский А.А. Финанасовый рынок: расчет и риск / Первозванский А.А., Первозванская Т.Н.. – М.: Инфра – М,1994.- 235c.3. Ковалев В.В. Финансовый анализ / Ковалев В.В. – М.: Финансы и статистика, 1995. – 511с.4. Капитоненко В.В. Финансовая математика и ее приложения / Капитоненко В.В.. – М.: Изд-во ПРИОР, 1998.-139сРЕЗЮМЕВ работе рассмотрена задача принятия решений в условиях неопределенности и риска. Доказан принцип равновероятности принятия решений вусловиях неопределенности. Показано его применение для решения задачи диверсификации инвестирования в различные депозиты.РЕЗЮМЕУ роботі розглянута задача ухвалення рішень в умовах невизначеності і ризику. Доведений принцип рівноймовірності ухвалення рішень вумовах невизначеності. Показано його застосування для вирішення задачі диверсифікації інвестування в різні депозити.SUMMARYThe task of acceptance of decisions in the conditions of vagueness and risk is considered in work. Principle of equilibrate acceptance of decisions in theconditions of vagueness is proved. His application for the decision of task of diversification of investing in different deposits is shown.MODERN TENDENCIES OF EXPORTING OF GEORGIALekashvili E., Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics and Business, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State UniversityTbilisi,Georgia ⋅Currency of the problem: Fundamental and systemic economic changes in Georgia consider transition to market economy, development of open economyand involvement in world economic space. The main result of the mentioned changes is the establishment of business entities with competitive productionat world market. In the course of the period of open economy development and transition to market economy, several problems were revealed, and one ofsuch problems is deficit of knowledge of right orientating at foreign markets. Deficit of knowledge especially has been especially revealed recently, underthe conditions of Russian embargo on Georgian wines and mineral waters and unavailability to export Georgian products at the EU and other foreignmarkets.Trade is holding fundamental place in foreign economic activities of Georgia and thus currency of the research subject is doubtless.Georgian companies are broadening foreign relations that are reflected in the growth of export. According to the Statistics Department of Georgia tradebalance of goods and services of Georgia in 2004-2008YY increased from -$1198.7 million to -$4808.5 million, while the mentioned rate in 2009 madeup -$1761.4 million (See Table No 1).The number of foreign trade partners is increasing both in developed and developing countries. However, the top ten trade partners (in export) for Georgiaare: Turkey, Azerbaijan, Canada, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Armenia, USA, Italy, Russia and Greece.Table No 1 - Foreign Trade of Georgia, 2004-2009 January-July, Million USD2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 January-JulyForeign Trade Turnover 2492.5 3355.4 4613.9 6447.3 7800.6 2996.0Registered Export of Goods (FOB) 646.9 865.5 936.2 1232.4 1496.1 617.3Registered Import of Goods (CIF) 1845.6 2490.0 3677.7 5214.9 6304.6 2378.7Foreign Trade Balance -1198.7 -1624.5 -2741.5 -3982.5 -4808.5 -1761.4Source: www.statistics.geThe essence of the problem is that in January-June of 2009, almost 80,5% of export was made from these 10 main countries (Previous years arecharacterized with the same rates: 82,3% - in 2001, 83,7% - in 2002, 82,4% - in 2003, 80,1% - 2004, approximately 94% from 6 countries - in 2005, and95% from 6 countries in 2006. Despite the fact that export volume was increasing in the mentioned countries, non-diversification of commodity structureof export and markets restricts prospects of export’s further development. It should be noted that increase of the number of partners defined growth ofcompetition among contractors that is determining factor for increase of export effectiveness.Export quota is one of the factors that reveal existing problems in exporting field of Georgia. Export quota indicates export volume correlation with thecountry’s GDP in percentage. Export quota rate was characterized with the reduction tendency in 2004-2008 (See, Table No 2) that indicates the reductionof the share of export incomes in the country’s GDP (See Diagram No 1).Table No 2. Gross Domestic Product of Georgia, Export (Million USD) and Export Quota (%) 1 , 2004-2008YYYearsGross Domestic Export Export Quota, %Product2004 5 124 696.9 13.62005 6 411 865.5 13.52006 7 761 936.2 12.02007 10 171 1 232.4 12.12008 12 798 1 496.1 11.6Permanent change of export-import structure of the country for benefit of imports clarifies that terms of trade of Georgia are continually worsening: theprices of the main exported commodities of Georgia are fallen, while majority of the enterprises producing these products are stopped or hardly working.Foreign trade turnover of Georgia in January-July of 2009 (without unorganized trading) was $2996.0 million that is 37% less compared to the same indexof previous year; Export out of this is $617.3 million (35% less), while import - $2378.7 million (37.8% less). In January-July of 2009, negative tradebalance of Georgia is $1761.4 million (correspondingly 38.6%) 2 . It is seen from the data that foreign trade indices are sharply worsened in comparisonwith the same period of previous year.© Lekashvili E., 20101 Table is designed based on the data of the Statistics Department of the Ministry of Economic Development of Georgia2www.statistics.ge52
Проблемы развития внешнеэкономических связей и привлечения иностранных инвестиций: региональный аспект, 2010Diagram N 1. Export Quota of Georgia, %, 2004-2008YYIn January-July of 2009, Georgia has negative trade balance with 98 partner countries and positive trade balance with 22 countries. Trade turnover ofGeorgia with the EU countries has decreased, export made up $127.0 million (42.9% less), and import - $706.7 million (35.4% less). 1According to the data of Statistics Department of Georgia, the share of top ten partner countries in aggregate foreign trade turnover is 68.1% for the periodof January-July 2009. Major trade partners of Georgia are Turkey, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Germany, Russia, USA, Bulgaria, Italy, China, and Armenia.Major trade partner countries of Georgia in export are Turkey, Azerbaijan, Canada, Armenia, Bulgaria, Ukraine, USA, Russia, Italy, and United Emiratesof Arabia. These countries hold 80% of total export volume.It is obvious that Geographical structure of Georgian export mainly covers countries and markets of strategic partners in one Geographical region.There are different tendencies of export indices with major trade partners in 2008 compared with previous year. Export volume in Bulgaria increased from$59 357 to $108 217; from $171 764 to $262 910 in Turkey; from $137 455 to $204 534 in Azerbaijan; from $110 844 to $123 422 in Armenia; from$70 604 to $131 806 in Canada. Export volume in USA has decreased from $149 036 to $102 198 in 2008 compared with the data of previous year 2 .Turkey is Georgia’s biggest trade partner country by the foreign trade turnover of January-July of 2009. Trade turnover with Turkey is $589.8 million thatis 16.7% less compared with the previous year’s rate. Share of trade turnover with this country increased by 4.9% and made up 19.7%. Export to Turkey is$143.4 million that is only 76.7% of the same rate of previous year. Export of ferrous metal scrap-iron and nitric fertilizer is reduced. However, export ofsuch commodity groups as seed wheat of oil crops, ferroalloy and cotton cake.Trade turnover with Azerbaijan is $296.1 million that is 60.1% of previous year rate. The share of trade turnover with Azerbaijan has decreased from10.3% to 9.9%. In the accounting period, in comparison with the previous year, export in Azerbaijan is decreased by $33.3 million. Major exportcommodity groups are passenger cars and cement. Ukraine is holding third place in the top ten of Georgia’s trade partners. Trade turnover with thiscountry is $272.7 million that is 59.3% of previous year rate.Share of trade turnover with Ukraine has decreased by 0.5 percentage points - from 9.6% to 9.1%. Export is reduced by $27.4 million. This was mainlyresulted in export volume decrease of the following commodity groups: ferroalloy, wines and apple. Export of alcoholic beverages is increased and itamounts $17.9 million.Ferroalloy is holding first place in export top ten commodities, with 12.9% of total export and $79.9 million. Crude and semi crude gold export amounts$62.8 million that is 10.2% of total export. Export of third commodity group - passenger cars has decreased by $19.9 million and made up $49.9 million 3 .In the recent years, share of separate commodity groups are increasing, instead of variety of commodity types exported. As a result, country’s exportpotential strongly depends on few commodities (ferroalloy, scrap iron, copper ore, fertilizers, nuts).Presented analysis makes obvious the sharpness of the problems existing in export of Georgia and reveals the currency of their studying. There aredifficulties, both in export production and its organization and management.LIST OF REFERENCES:1. European Commission (2004) Flash Euro barometer; Entrepreneurship, European Union Economics, Fifth Edition, Theo Hitiris, Prentice Hall, 20032. Getting Started in Export Trade, International Trade center, UNICTAD/WTO, Geneva3. Carl Nelson, Import/Export: How to Get Started in International Trade4. Exporting, Importing and Beyond, Lawrence W. Tuller, Adams Media Corp.5. Principles and Practice of Exporting, Study Guides, University of Lincolnshire and Humberside, By Geoff Cook6. Krugman P., Obstfeld M., International Economics: Theory and Policy. Ed. 3-9, Chapter7. Doha Declaration, WTO,2008, ISBN 978-92-870-3447-2, p.978. WTO Discussion Papers, WTO, N2, Improving the Availability of Trade Finance during Financial Crisis, 2009 - III9. WTO Discussion Papers, WTO, N1, Industrial Tariffs and the Doha Development Agenda, 2009-I10. WTO Discussion Papers, WTO, N4, The Role of Export Taxes in the Field of Primary Commodities; 2004-VII11. WTO-Annual Report, 200812. Р. Гриффин, М. Пастей, Международный Бизнес, Питер, 200613. Т.А.Пугель, П.Х.Линдерт, Международная экономика, М., 200314. П. Кругман, М.Обстфельд. Международная экономика. Теория и политика. М., 200315. А.Киреев. Международная экономика, части 1,2. М., 1997/9916. Ф. Аналоуи,А.Карами,Стратагический менеджмент малых и средних предприятий,пер.с англ.М., 2005РЕЗЮМЕВ статье рассмотрены современные тенденции развития экспорта Грузии.РЕЗЮМЕУ статті розглянуті сучасні тенденції розвитку експорту Грузії.SUMMARYIn article modern lines of development of export of Georgia are considered.1www.statistics.ge2Statistics Department of the Ministry of Economic Development of Georgia; Statistical publication, analysis of foreign trade indices of Georgia, Tbilisi2009, page 133Foreign Trade of Georgia, January-July 2009, Page 2-3, www.statistics.ge53
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