Том 1

56Проблемы развития внешнеэкономических связей и привлечения иностранных инвестиций: региональный аспект, 2010• Cost Estimate for FEL 2 StageThe FEL 1 stage typically takes 2-3 months to complete. The costs for this stage are quite minimal and depending on the size of the project, a project team of 1-2 persons can complete this stage.FEL 2 StageListed below are key Characteristics of the FEL 2 Stage. The goal of the FEL 2 stage is develop general engineering documentation and high levelsimplementation plans and schedules. Based engineering drawings and schematics are completed, and the location of the buildings and main equipment arefrozen.Commonly known as Pre-Feasibility Study• Cost estimate +/- 20%• Determination of production program and capacity calculations• Analyze and select technology• Review availability of raw material and components• Availability of Energy resources• Availability of Human Resources (operation / construction)• Review of Safety and Environmental Issues (Start EIA and SIA processes).• Initial Geotechnical Investigations Conducted• Develop Draft Project Execution Plan• Develop High Level Logistics Plan• Issue technical specification to equipment suppliers and review bids for main equipment• Review bids and prepare recommendation for main equipment supplier• Prepare list of long lead itemsDepending on the size and scope of the project, an FEL project team can have as few as 2 people or as many as 20. During this phase of the project, althoughthe main technology has been selected, the main equipment supplier is not usually selected until the end of the stage. Early in the stage, a technical specificationis issued to potential main equipment suppliers so that they can prepare bids. The bids are reviewed, and a recommendation for main equipment supplier isprovided to management. This can be done at the end of the FEL 2 phase, or just prior to the end of the phase. In order to begin the FEL 3 stage, it is necessaryto have the main equipment supplier selected. This is required to complete the detailed engineering as well as order long lead items.FEL 3The FEL 3 stage is final stage before FID, in which detailed engineering, planning and cost calculations occur. The main equipment supplier has been selected,and potential construction companies are assessed, and in some cases a construction partner is also selected.• Commonly known as Feasibility Stage• Cost estimate +/- 10%• Detailed production program and capacity calculations.• Detailed list of mechanical, electrical, automation components.• Order long lead items• Confirm equipment suppliers• Develop detailed construction plan and cost estimate• Detailed Procurement Plan• Detailed review of Safety and Environmental Issues (EIA’s and SIA’s completed at end of FEL 3).• Detailed Geotechnical Investigations and Surveys Conducted• Detailed Logistics Plan including Simulations (Examples)• Project Execution Plan FinalizedDetailed engineering drawings are completed, a detailed construction plan and schedule is developed and reviewed by construction experts and key permitsrequired for the project to proceed are obtained. These include, but are not limited to, the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Social ImpactAssessment (SIA). These must be completed prior to FID, because if management is going to approve the project, they must know that the project has approvalfrom the required authorities.Capital Cost EstimateFID documentation is prepared with detailed capital cost estimates. The quantities of each construction material is calculated and the cost estimated (steel,concrete, piping, etc). Labor is calculated based on the trades required and their hourly rate. Shut down costs (if required) are also calculated (ie productionlosses due to shut down of rolling mill while new equipment is installed).The capital cost estimate is broken down into 3 main section; equipment costs, direct costs and indirect costs.Equipment costs are costs for main process equipment based on fixed pricing or contracts already in place. These prices are considered fixed unless there arestipulations in the contract stating the prices can change.Direct Costs are composed of direct construction and erection costs, for example: materials, erection of main equipment, additional equipment not supplied bymain equipment suppliers (cabling, piping, etc) and demolition costs.Indirect Costs are comprised of Project Management Costs, Commissioning and Training Costs and Customs and Shipping.In a typical Western Project, the cost breakdown would be as follows:Main Equipment – 40%Direct Costs- 30%Indirect Costs- 30%The cost breakdown is also very dependent on if the site is Green Field (new site and therefore new buildings/utilities are required) or Brown Field (constructedwithin existing building or process). A Green Field project will have much higher direct costs then a Brown Field site where most of the cost will be for mainequipment.Based on experience on project in CIS countries, the indirect costs are usually closer to 20% based on cheaper labor. However cost estimate received from theDesign Institutes have indirect costs closer to 10%, which is very unrealistic and this has been proven on many projects.For a recently estimated project in the CIS, the Capital Cost Estimate was broken down as follows:Main Equipment – 55%Direct Costs- 25%Indirect Costs- 20%After the capital cost estimate, the financial justification is completed. The exact methodology and calculations/model used will depend on the clients process.Typically, the following items are listed in the justification: Capital costs Capital costs less sunk cost NPV 10years + residual value Project IRR Project DPP Project PBNPV (Net Present Value) is cash inflows from the project excluding money value and risk extra payment. From the mathematical point of view, NPV is totaldiscounted cash flows of the project.