Handbook of the History of Logic: - Fordham University Faculty

698 Russell Wahl
decision will then be to avoid small harms, which are more likely. The book
concludes with an early statement of Pascal’s wager argument for the rationality
in believing in God. 32 For even though the above reasoning works with respect
to finite things like thunderstorms, infinite goods like eternity and salvation can
never be balanced against any temporal advantage (355).
This discussion of probability is indeed brief, but is important, as Ian Hacking
has argued, since it contains the first clear statement of the issues and the first
use of quantities of probability as a guide to decision making under imperfect
knowledge.
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32 Pascal’s Pensées was published (posthumously) eight years after the first edition of the Port-
Royal Logic. Pascal died in 1662. [McKenna, 1986, 204–206], suggests that the argument here
was presented in a lecture given by Pascal at Port-Royal in 1658, attended by Nicole. A 1660
manuscript of the Logic contains the chapter on uncertain reasoning (Chapter 13), but not the
final chapters which mention the games of chance and the hints of the wager argument.