Bananas and Food Security - Bioversity International

42 Les productions bananières / Bananas and food security – Session 1
the apparent per capita consumption increased from 22.35 kg/year (1973 to 1979
average) to 24.10 kg/year (1990 to 1997 average). Data from FAO indicate the Brazilian
per capita consumption of banana in 1995 was around 35 kg/year. On the other hand, the
data in table 1 suggest that the per capita consumption in that year was 35 kg. This can
be explained by the fact that FAO statistics do not consider post-harvest losses.
In order to calculate annual banana yield losses, as shown in table 1, a constant loss
of about 40% was assumed, as observed in 1973 (Mascarenhas 1997). In Brazil, banana
yield losses are higher in the northern and north-eastern regions where the banana crop
is grown under low production technology and the growers are less organised.
In the southern and south-eastern regions, yield losses are lower. In those regions the
structure of banana production and marketing is much more organised than in the
north-east. This is due mainly to the way the banana crop was introduced in each of
those regions. For example, the state of Bahia, located in the north-east region, is the
biggest banana producer in Brazil. The banana crop in that state was introduced as a
shade crop for cacao. Often growers do not harvest the bananas because cacao is their
main crop. In the south and south-east regions, especially in the Ribeira Valley (State of
São Paulo), and in the state of Santa Catarina, banana growers use high technology
levels, including chemical control of yellow Sigatoka by aerial spraying.
As stated before, in the southern and south-eastern states, the post-harvest losses of
banana fruit are lower than those observed in the northern and north-eastern states,
where post harvest losses are higher than 40%. According to Souza et al. (1995), in the
state of Santa Catarina the average post-harvest yield loss is around 34%. These losses
are distributed as follows: during harvest (more than 5%); during packing (more than
2%); at the wholesale market (from 6 to 10%); at the retail market (from 10 to 15%); and
at consumer level (from 5 to 8%). Souza et al. (1995) draw attention to the fact that banana
yield losses are higher during the warmer months. They also mention that yield
losses may vary depending on the season, distance from the plantation to the consumer,
type of packing and method of transportation.
Table 2 shows a prediction of supply of and demand for banana fruit in Brazil for the
period 2000 to 2005. Seven scenarios are reported. The first scenario uses the time trend
of the series to make supply and demand projections. All the other scenarios utilise
income elasticity of demand as an important parameter to project the demand side. The
possibility of increasing and/or maintaining the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per
capita is considered.
It can be seen that excess of demand would only occur if the projections were based
upon the time trend of the series or when an increasing rate, equal to or higher than
2.5% per year of the GDP per capita, is assumed. The projection based on the time trend
of the series shows a 36,000 metric ton deficit of supply by the year 2005. On the other
hand, projections based on income elasticity of demand, assuming an increasing rate of
2.5% and 3.0% per year of the GDP per capita, indicate deficits around 81,000 and
240,000 metric tons, respectively.
Mascarenhas (1997) points out that some qualifications must be made regarding the
supply projections based purely on the time trend of the series. One important point is