Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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92 An Overview of the Scenario Literature § X 9\ S
An Overview of the Scenario Literature 93 20 18 о •С es lî ft* .=3 •3 в А О 5 16 14 12 10 h Medium from Database 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Figure 2-4: Global population - historical development and 46 scenarios from the database. Fevi^er than 46 lines are shown because many of the 46 scenarios use identical population projections. Only 46 of the scenarios in the database identify their population projections. Data source: Durand, 1967; Demeny, 1990; UN, 1996; Morita and Lee, 1998. The historical gross world product growth rate has been about 4% per year since 1950; in the scenarios the average annual growth rates to 2100 range from 3.2% per year to 1.1% per year, with the median value at 2.3% per year. Table 2-3 summarizes the future economic growth rates of the 148 scenarios in the database that report gross world product for 2100. This translates into a gross world product level in 2100 that varies from 3.2 (IS92c, Pepper et al., 1992) to more than 32 (FUND/EMF Modeler's choice. Toi, 1995) times the 1990 gross world product. The 1990 gross world product was about US$20 trillion (all values in 1990 US dollars), which translates into a range from more than US$700 to about US$65 trillion by 2100. Figure 2-5 also indicates that this full range includes a few noticeable outliers toward the high and low of future gross world product development. The rest of the scenarios are grouped much more closely together, which compresses the range to a factor increase of about 17 to 7 (129 out of 148 scenarios) times compared to 1990. The degree of clustering is discussed in greater detail in the histograms that follow. 2.4.6. Gross World Product Histograms Figures 2-6a and 2-6b depict the range of gross world product in 2050 and 2100 across all scenarios in the database.' The lower horizontal axis shows the factor increase of gross world product compared with the 1990 value (about US$20 trillion). The second horizontal axis multiplies the index by the 1990 gross world product to indicate absolute values for each histogram. ' Values are shown also as indexed to 1990 values, since model base years and base-year values differ. Table 2-3: Future economic growth rates for the maximum, minimum, median, and percentiles of the 148 scenarios in the database that report gross world product for 2100 (percent per year). 1990-2020 1990-2050 1990-2100 Maximum 3.8 3.6 3.2 95% 3.2 2.9 2.4 75% 2.8 2.6 2.3 Median 2.7 2.5 2.3 25% 2.6 2.4 2.1 5% 2.0 1.7 1.3 Minimum 1.5 1.4 1.1
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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Page 52 and 53: 44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
Page 54 and 55: 46 Technical Summary does not exist
Page 56 and 57: 48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
Page 58 and 59: 50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
Page 60 and 61: 52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
Page 62 and 63: 54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
Page 64 and 65: 56 Technical Summary References: Al
Page 67 and 68: 1 Background and Overview
Page 69 and 70: Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Page 73 and 74: Background and Overview 65 interven
Page 75 and 76: Background and Overview 67 powerful
Page 77 and 78: Background and Overview 69 1900 195
Page 79 and 80: Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
Page 81 and 82: Background and Overview 73 1900 195
Page 83 and 84: Background and Overview characteriz
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Page 111 and 112: 3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Page 117 and 118: Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
Page 119 and 120: Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
Page 121 and 122: Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
Page 123 and 124: Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
Page 125 and 126: Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
Page 127 and 128: Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
Page 129 and 130: Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
Page 131 and 132: Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
Page 133 and 134: Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
Page 135 and 136: Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
Page 137 and 138: Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
Page 139 and 140: Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
Page 141 and 142: Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
Page 143 and 144: Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
Page 145 and 146: Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
Page 147 and 148: Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
Page 149 and 150: Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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