Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

204 An Overview of Scenarios
Box 4.7 (continued)
Table 4-9: Energy prices (1990US$IGJ) across SRES scenarios as calculated in the ASF (top) and MiniCAM models for their
respective Al, A2, Bl, and B2 (cf. Table 4-8) scenarios. Note in particular significant base-year differences in fuel prices
because of different cost accounting definitions used in models (c.i.f. versus f.o.b.^^), in particular with respect to
transportation costs (included in the price figures given for ASF, hut excluded in the numbers given for MiniCAM).
Al A2 Bl B2
ASF"
Coal 2000 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
2020 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5
2050 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6
2100 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.7
Oil 2000 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
2020 5.3 4.7 5.1 4.7
2050 7.1 6.2 6.3 6.1
2100 7.7 7.5 6.1 7.1
Gas 2000 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
2020 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0
2050 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.9
2100 7.9 6.1 4.9 5.8
MiniCAM^
Coal 1990 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
2020 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6
2050 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.7
2100 2.5 2.5 1.9 2.0
Oil 1990 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
2020 8.6 10.2 6.4 7.3
2050 10.4 13.3 9.9 10.4
2100 9.6 15.2 8.5 10.2
Gas 1990 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
2020 2.8 3.2 2.0 2.4
2050 3.8 5.7 2.5 3.0
2100 6.8 8.7 1.9 2.3
Biofuels 1990 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2020 2.1 2.2 2.0 2
2050 2.4 2.6 2.0 2.1
2100 2.3 3.2 1.5 2.0
^ASF; global average supply price, including transportation.
''MiniCAM: as determined by solution to a partial equilibrium supply and demand model.
and economic structural changes, with consequent
improvements in energy intensity. As a result, the rate of energy
intensity improvement in Annex I countries is around 1.16% per
year, and in non-Annex I countries 1.44% over the 100 years to
2100. Thus, final energy use for Al is much higher than those in
the A2, Bl, and B2 scénarios, with a substantial long-term
convergence in final energy use per capita between Annex 1
countries and non-Annex 1 countries.
2^ c.i.f., cost, insurance, freight (included in price); f.o.b., free on
board (i.e. insurance and transport costs not iticluded in fuel price
delivered "free on board" transport vessel only). These different
cost-accounting methods for international energy trade are
particular important for transport and infrastructure intensive fuels
such as natural gas.
4.4.5.2. Harmonized and Other Al Scenarios
The various Al scenarios indicate a wide range in energy
intensity improvements and resultant energy demand. AlB-
MESSAGE tracks closely the global and regional energy
demand patterns of the AlB marker and so satisfies the
criteria of a "fully harmonized" scenario, albeit that ASIA
deviafions from the AlB marker amount to about 20% during
the period 2030 to 2060. Other scenaiios indicate, for
example, higher energy demand in 2050 (e.g., Al-ASF)
and/or lower energy demand in 2100 (e.g., AlB-IMAGE,
AIB-ASF, and AIB-MARIA). Differences are regionally
heterogeneous and result from:
• Higher GDP growth rates assumptions compared to those
of the AlB marker (e.g., Al-MiniCAM for OECD90).