Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

More documents

Recommendations

Info

490 Statistical Table Scenario A2-MiniCAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 ALM Population Million 1236 1566 1953 2399 2884 3372 3862 4311 4712 5065 5306 5552 GNP/GDP (тех) GNP/GDP (ppp) TriUion (1990 prices) TriUion US$ 1.9 2.8 4.3 6.2 9.9 14.7 na na na na na na 20.7 29.5 39.5 50.9 64.3 79.3 na na na na na na Final Energy Non-commercial SoUds Liquids Gas Electi'icity Others Total EJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 5 7 11 15 17 22 27 33 37 48 5 7 10 13 17 19 3 6 10 16 28 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 38 52 68 93 126 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 20 22 23 24 25 65 83 104 128 151 174 18 19 20 23 21 20 65 94 128 166 210 254 0 0 0 0 0 0 167 216 274 340 406 472 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 4 6 9 13 26 44 20 23 28 33 35 38 7 10 15 22 34 42 0 2 4 6 12 19 0 1 1 2 4 8 67 69 77 91 101 112 44 43 48 57 54 51 46 53 ' 62 72 70 68 27 33 41 50 62 74 12 22 30 36 44 53 Other Renewables Total 5 6 8 11 15 20 35 48 66 89 126 171 26 40 56 74 98 123 223 261 313 380 430 480 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.6 4.6 5.6 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.4 1.5 2.0 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.7 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 36.6 58.3 84.8 116.4 154.5 198.6 248.1 303.5 365.0 432.5 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total 391 368 365 384 403 414 1510 1596 1710 1853 1989 2097 0 0 0 0 0 10 3641 3585 3478 3318 3161 3028 19.57 1878 1800 1723 1688 1647 7499 7427 7353 7279 7241 7196 418 405 394 384 379 375 2179 2149 2132 2128 2156 2184 28 65 90 104 129 153 2920 2930 2936 2939 2890 2841 1599 1532 1486 1461 1473 1484 7145 7081 7038 7016 7027 7037 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 0.72 1.01 1.24 1.54 2.08 2.77 0.73 0.82 0.70 0.87 0.80 0.69 1.45 1.83 1.94 2.41 2.88 3.46 77 85 89 96 108 116 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.7 10.5 12.8 14.7 15.4 18.1 21.7 0 2 19 32 49 69 4 4 8 12 16 21 3 5 7 10 13 18 3.61 4.18 4.91 5.81 6.42 7.07 0.54 0.49 0.32 0.04 0.02 0.00 4.15 4.67 5.24 5.84 6.44 7.07 120 114 115 121 123 125 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.6 26.1 28.1 27.8 25.2 21.9 18.5 98 139 !8i 233 295 336 26 34 39 45 50 52 23 29 32 37 41 43
Statistical Table Scenario A2-Al-MiniCAM World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5293 6007 6762 7558 8332 9054 9723 10217 10696 11161 11620 12090 GNP/GDP (mex) Tnlhon US$ 20 7 27 4 33 0 37 6 41 8 48 8 58 6 76 4 98 2 123 8 158 1 197 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 puces) na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 0 Ü 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sohds 45 60 70 73 80 90 103 102 106 116 125 135 Liquids 121 128 130 128 116 124 151 198 253 314 381 447 Gas 52 64 73 78 81 91 110 128 155 191 208 225 Electricity 35 55 74 90 101 128 164 237 317 406 523 640 Otheis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 253 308 346 369 380 433 528 665 831 1027 1237 1447 Piimaiy Eneigy EJ Coal 88 121 136 133 148 167 189 196 213 239 266 294 Oil 131 138 138 133 114 118 145 200 260 327 395 464 Gas 70 87 111 142 149 171 209 263 328 405 444 483 Nuclear 24 27 30 32 37 47 64 95 123 149 214 278 Biomass 0 6 10 13 16 18 22 34 44 51 55 59 Other Renewables 24 24 27 31 36 43 51 70 92 118 151 183 Total 336 403 452 485 499 564 679 857 1061 1289 1525 1761 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0 1 1 2 25 38 53 69 0 1 1 5 29 42 5 4 66 0 1 09 19 3 1 46 63 86 10 6 12 6 14 8 17 5 20 1 79 98 12 1 14 9 18 7 22 5 8 1 10 6 136 17 1 215 25 8 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7 1 82 4 164 2 248 7 333 8 422 5 523 9 641 8 778 8 943 5 1135 8 1352 2 Caibon Sequestration GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland 1472 1461 1463 1478 1423 1359 1285 1214 1174 1165 1107 1050 Grasslands 3209 3343 3464 3572 3545 3524 3508 3557 3703 3948 4091 4234 Energy Biomass 0 4 8 14 16 17 18 45 65 75 71 67 Forest 4173 4214 4155 3995 4092 4252 4475 4571 4436 4069 3925 3782 Otheis 4310 4142 4074 4106 4088 4012 3878 3777 3787 3908 3970 4032 Total 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 Anthropogenic Emissions (standaidized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Othei C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20 N SOx total MtS CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq PFC MtCeq SF6 MtC eq CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 5 99 6 90 7 62 7 89 8 13 8 89 1 11 1 07 0 76 0 62 0 37 0 35 7 10 7 97 8 39 851 8 50 9 24 310 323 339 354 363 379 67 70 78 86 9 I 99 70 9 69 0 73 9 65 7 66 6 70 8 1672 883 785 292 258 291 32 25 41 51 64 77 38 40 50 64 75 89 ШЛ6 12 40 14 83 17 77 20 28 23 00 0 58 0 13 0 04 031 0 10 -0 11 И 05 12 52 14 87 18 08 20 38 22 89 402 428 473 537 582 627 10 6 115 130 15 1 17 2 19 3 78 1 81 4 84 0 86 2 85 4 84 5 312 384 457 549 662 753 92 113 129 148 168 178 104 122 129 135 153 165
Page 2 and 3:
E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
Page 4 and 5:
PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
Page 6 and 7:
Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
Page 8 and 9:
Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
Page 10 and 11:
C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
Page 12 and 13:
4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
Page 14 and 15:
6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
Page 16 and 17:
8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
Page 18 and 19:
lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
Page 20 and 21:
Summary for Policymakers such as fe
Page 22 and 23:
14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
Page 24 and 25:
16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
Page 26 and 27:
18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
Page 28 and 29:
Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
Page 30 and 31:
CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
Page 32 and 33:
24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
Page 34 and 35:
26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
Page 36 and 37:
28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
Page 38 and 39:
30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
Page 40 and 41:
32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
Page 42 and 43:
34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
Page 44 and 45:
36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
Page 46 and 47:
38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
Page 48 and 49:
40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
Page 50 and 51:
42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
Page 52 and 53:
44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
Page 54 and 55:
46 Technical Summary does not exist
Page 56 and 57:
48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
Page 58 and 59:
50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
Page 60 and 61:
52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
Page 62 and 63:
54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
Page 64 and 65:
56 Technical Summary References: Al
Page 67 and 68:
1 Background and Overview
Page 69 and 70:
Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
Page 71 and 72:
Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
Page 73 and 74:
Background and Overview 65 interven
Page 75 and 76:
Background and Overview 67 powerful
Page 77 and 78:
Background and Overview 69 1900 195
Page 79 and 80:
Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
Page 81 and 82:
Background and Overview 73 1900 195
Page 83 and 84:
Background and Overview characteriz
Page 85 and 86:
2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
Page 87 and 88:
An Overview of the Scenario Literat
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
Page 111 and 112:
3 Scenario Driving Forces
Page 113 and 114:
Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
Page 115 and 116:
Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
Page 117 and 118:
Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
Page 119 and 120:
Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
Page 121 and 122:
Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
Page 123 and 124:
Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
Page 125 and 126:
Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
Page 127 and 128:
Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
Page 129 and 130:
Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
Page 131 and 132:
Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
Page 133 and 134:
Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
Page 135 and 136:
Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
Page 137 and 138:
Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
Page 139 and 140:
Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
Page 141 and 142:
Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
Page 143 and 144:
Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
Page 145 and 146:
Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
Page 147 and 148:
Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
Page 149 and 150:
Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
Page 151 and 152:
Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
Page 153 and 154:
Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
Page 155 and 156:
Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
Page 157 and 158:
Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
Page 159 and 160:
Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
Page 161 and 162:
Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
Page 163 and 164:
Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
Page 165 and 166:
Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
Page 167 and 168:
Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
Page 169 and 170:
Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
Page 171 and 172:
Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
Page 173 and 174:
Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
Page 175 and 176:
4 An Overview of Scenarios
Page 177 and 178:
An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
Page 179 and 180:
An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
Page 181 and 182:
An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
Page 183 and 184:
An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
Page 185 and 186:
An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
Page 187 and 188:
An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
Page 189 and 190:
An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
Page 191 and 192:
An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
Page 193 and 194:
An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
Page 195 and 196:
An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
Page 197 and 198:
An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
Page 199 and 200:
An Overview of Scenarios 191
Page 201 and 202:
An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
Page 203 and 204:
Page 205 and 206:
An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
Page 207 and 208:
An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
Page 209 and 210:
An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
Page 211 and 212:
An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
Page 213 and 214:
An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
Page 215 and 216:
An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
Page 221 and 222:
An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
Page 223 and 224:
An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
Page 225 and 226:
An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
Page 227 and 228:
An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
Page 229 and 230:
Page 231 and 232:
An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
Page 233 and 234:
An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
Page 235 and 236:
An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
Page 237 and 238:
Page 239 and 240:
Page 241 and 242:
An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
Page 243 and 244:
An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
Page 245 and 246:
An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
Page 247 and 248:
Emission Scenarios
Page 249 and 250:
Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
Page 251 and 252:
Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
Page 253 and 254:
Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
Page 255 and 256:
Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
Page 257 and 258:
Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
Page 259 and 260:
Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
Page 261 and 262:
Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
Page 263 and 264:
Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
Page 265 and 266:
Emission Scénarios 257 is between
Page 267 and 268:
Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
Page 269 and 270:
Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
Page 271 and 272:
Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
Page 273 and 274:
Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
Page 275 and 276:
Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
Page 277 and 278:
Emission Scenarios 269 technically
Page 279 and 280:
Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
Page 281 and 282:
Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
Page 283 and 284:
Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
Page 285 and 286:
Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
Page 287 and 288:
Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
Page 289 and 290:
Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
Page 291 and 292:
Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
Page 293 and 294:
Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
Page 295 and 296:
Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
Page 297 and 298:
Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
Page 299 and 300:
Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
Page 301 and 302:
6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
Page 303 and 304:
Summary Discussions and Recommendat
Page 305 and 306:
Page 307 and 308:
Page 309 and 310:
Page 311 and 312:
Page 313 and 314:
Page 315 and 316:
Page 317 and 318:
Page 319 and 320:
Page 321 and 322:
Page 323 and 324:
Page 325 and 326:
Page 327 and 328:
Page 329:
SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
Page 332 and 333:
324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
Page 335 and 336:
II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
Page 337 and 338:
SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
Page 339 and 340:
Ill Definition of SRES World Re
Page 341:
Definition of SRES World Regions Me
Page 344 and 345:
336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
Page 346 and 347:
338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
Page 348 and 349:
340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
Page 350 and 351:
342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
Page 352 and 353:
344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
Page 354 and 355:
346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
Page 356 and 357:
348 Data Description Database Descr
Page 358 and 359:
350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
Page 361 and 362:
Open Process
Page 363 and 364:
Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
Page 365 and 366:
Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
Page 367 and 368:
Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
Page 369 and 370:
Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
Page 371 and 372:
Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
Page 373 and 374:
Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
Page 375 and 376:
Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
Page 377 and 378:
Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
Page 379 and 380:
Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
Page 381 and 382:
Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
Page 383 and 384:
Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
Page 385:
Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
Page 388 and 389:
380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
Page 390 and 391:
3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
Page 392 and 393:
384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
Page 394 and 395:
386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
Page 396 and 397:
Page 398 and 399:
Page 400 and 401:
392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
Page 402 and 403:
Page 404 and 405:
Page 406 and 407:
Page 408 and 409:
Page 410 and 411:
Page 412 and 413:
Page 414 and 415:
4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
Page 416 and 417:
Page 418 and 419:
Page 420 and 421:
412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
Page 422 and 423:
Page 424 and 425:
416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
Page 426 and 427:
Page 428 and 429:
Page 430 and 431:
Page 432 and 433:
Page 434 and 435:
426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
Page 436 and 437:
Page 438 and 439:
Page 440 and 441:
Page 442 and 443:
Page 444 and 445:
436 Statistical Table Illustrative
Page 446 and 447:
438 Statistical Table Illustrative
Page 448 and 449: 440 Statistical Table Illustrative
Page 450 and 451: 442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
Page 460 and 461: 452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
Page 464 and 465: 456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
Page 470 and 471: 462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
Page 472 and 473: 464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
Page 474 and 475: 466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
Page 480 and 481: 472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
Page 484 and 485: 476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
Page 490 and 491: 482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
Page 492 and 493: 484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
Page 504 and 505: 496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
Page 508 and 509: 500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
Page 520 and 521: 512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
Page 530 and 531: 522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
Page 534 and 535: 526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
Page 540 and 541: 532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
Page 548 and 549:
540 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
Page 550 and 551:
542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
Page 552 and 553:
544 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
Page 554 and 555:
Page 556 and 557:
Page 558 and 559:
Page 560 and 561:
552 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
Page 562 and 563:
554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
Page 564 and 565:
556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
Page 566 and 567:
558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
Page 568 and 569:
Page 570 and 571:
Page 572 and 573:
Page 574 and 575:
Page 576 and 577:
Page 578 and 579:
Page 580 and 581:
572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
Page 582 and 583:
574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
Page 584 and 585:
576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
Page 586 and 587:
578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
Page 588 and 589:
580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
Page 590 and 591:
582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
Page 592 and 593:
584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
Page 594 and 595:
586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
Page 596 and 597:
588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
Page 598 and 599:
590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
Page 600 and 601:
592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
Page 602 and 603:
594 Glossary of Terms standards for
Page 605 and 606:
XII List of Major IPCC Reports
Page 607:
List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
show all

Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?