Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
529
Scenario BIT-MESSAGE
ASIA
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3261 3620 3937 4147 4238 4220 4085 3867 3589 3258 2882
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 4.8 8.7 15.1 24.9 37.9 51.4 64.8 78.7 91.7 103.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 5.3 8.2 12.0 17.3 24.6 34.1 46.1 57.4 67.7 79.3 91.7 103.1
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 24 16 12 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 19 32 45 42 39 31 17 13 5 1 0 0
Liquids 13 22 37 55 73 94 99 92 82 74 62 50
Gas 2 3 7 11 13 17 20 25 23 15 10 8
Electricity 4 6 12 21 32 44 49 57 59 60 58 53
Others 1 2 5 9 12 15 16 20 24 27 30 28
Total 62 82 117 145 173 203 204 206 193 176 159 139
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 30 42 57 58 49 44 24 12 4 2 I 0
Oil 15 26 39 53 67 71 71 58 47 37 26 18
Gas 3 5 13 24 35 48 48 48 45 38 31 24
Nuclear 0 I 2 3 7 9 10 11 9 8 7 7
Biomass 24 22 25 30 39 50 53 61 61 62 59 50
Other Renewables 1 3 6 12 20 33 53 75 92 101 113 110
Total 74 98 142 179 217 255 258 266 259 249 237 208
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2 3 3 3.3
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.1
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.4
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.5 19.3 43.4 71.5 100.9 131.8 161.0 184.6 202.3 215.4 225.4 232.9
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use *
Million ha
Cropland 438 435 435 435 434 434 434 434 433 433 433 433
Grasslands 608 606 609 612 614 617 619 622 625 628 631 634
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 12 28 40 52 54 55 54 50 46
Forest 535 525 518 535 551 557 563 578 593 604 610 616
Others 583 598 602 571 536 516 496 477 458 446 441 436
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 •> GtC 1.15 1.78 2.58 3.01 3.21
Other C02