Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
567
Scenario B2.MiniCAM
OECD90
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 838 907 958 993 1003 1024 1023 1013 1006 1002 1003 1004
GNP/GDP (mex) TriUion US$ 16.3 20.5 24.5 28.5 29.5 33.2 36.3 38.4 40.9 43.7 47.4 51.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 12 12 11 11 11 11 8 7 6 6 6
Liquids 72 69 66 63 57 47 49 49 50 52 53 55
Gas 27 34 42 50 50 48 45 44 45 49 49 49
Electricity 22 26 31 36 38 44 50 52 54 56 59 63
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 130 141 151 160 156 149 154 153 156 163 168 173
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 40 43 40 31 32 35 37 33 30 29 28 27
Oil 76 73 69 64 56 42 44 44 45 47 49 51
Gas 34 43 59 79 79 76 73 72 72 75 74 73
Nuclear 20 15 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 16 20
Biomass 0 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
Other Renewables 12 11 12 15 15 18 19 22 25 28 30 32
Total 182 188 194 203 197 187 190 189 191 197 201 206
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 1,9 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8
Oil 0.1 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.5 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.4 5.9
Gas 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.0 3,2 3.9 4.6 5.4 6.1 6.8 7.6
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 65.9 100.1 134.0 165.9 196.2 226.0 254.8 282.2 308.3 333.2
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 408 412 417 423 419 399 375 339 309 286 261 236
Grasslands 796 820 861 918 942 1002 1025 998 974 955 945 935
Energy Biomass 0 2 3 3 3 4 4 8 8 6 3 1
Forest 921 931 922 894 878 847 850 926 980 1014 1016 1018
Others 998 958 920 885 881 871 868 853 851 862 897 932
Total 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.28 3.26 3.16 2.98 3.02 2.90 2.86 2.88 2.90 2.91
Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.19 0.17 0.07 0.00 0.03 -0.03 -0.21 -0.35 -0.49
Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.39 3.45 3.33 3.05 3.02 2.94 2.82 2.68 2.55 2.42
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 82 92 95 106 114 120 128 138 148 158
N20 total MtN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 13.2 7.0 6.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.9 5,3
HFC MtC eq. 19 57 105 99 102 101 102 101 100 98 98 97
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 7
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 25 23 17 13 13 11 10 11 10 10
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN