Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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530 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-MESSAGE ALM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 1192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727 GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 4.4 9.3 17.0 27.6 41.6 56.7 73.6 92.0 109.1 124.8 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 3.8 5.1 7.6 12.8 20.1 30.6 44.0 57.8 73.6 92.0 109.1 124.8 Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 14 11 11 8 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 Solids 1 4 4 5 7 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 Liquids 17 22 37 53 72 82 90 83 72 59 42 33 Gas 4 6 10 15 24 36 40 39 34 22 19 16 Electricity 3 5 9 18 29 42 55 68 71 72 68 62 Others 0 1 3 7 12 19 27 34 46 56 61 56 Total 39 49 73 106 149 190 219 228 224 210 190 168 Primary Energy EJ Coal 5 4 8 11 15 18 11 5 2 2 1 2 Oil 21 30 40 50 64 65 66 55 42 32 22 15 Gas 8 12 23 39 68 96 98 101 ' 76 62 56 60 Nuclear 0 0 1 2 4 5 7 8 8 6 5 7 Biomass 14 14 17 24 30 37 47 48 53 46 32 27 Other Renewables 2 4 7 14 21 37 70 106 148 176 186 165 Total 49 65 96 140 201 259 300 322 328 322 302 275 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.9 Gas 0.0 O.l 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.3 5.9 6.5 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 37.4 59.6 84.3 112.4 141.9 168.5 189.6 204.9 216.3 225.5 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use " Million ha Cropland 371 385 385 385 384 384 383 383 383 383 382 382 Grasslands 1680 1675 1686 1696 1705 1714 1723 1732 1741 1750 1760 1769 Energy Biomass 0 0 0 29 66 93 121 124 127 124 116 107 Forest 1745 1720 1704 1702 1732 1761 1790 1808 1825 1843 1862 1880 Others 1684 1700 1704 1669 1593 1527 1461 1432 1403 1379 1361 1342 Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 ^ GtC 0.72 1.01 1.46 1.98 2.76 3.27 3.09 2.69 1.94 1.50 1.22 1.16 Other C02 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.62 0.38 -0.19 -0.22 -0.25 -0.22 -0.19 -0.20 -0.24 -0.29 Total C02 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.08 2.36 2.57 3.05 2.85 2.47 1.75 1.31 0.97 0.87 CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 98 112 133 151 1.59 154 148 132 110 89 N20 total « MtN20-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 14.8 15.0 15.2 14.1 13.1 11.4 9.0 7.1 5.4 4.1 HFC MtC eq. 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89 PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12 SF6 MtC eq. 2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14 CO MtCO 396 404 434 475 522 568 588 564 538 473 412 387 NMVOC Mt 48 55 64 72 80 83 81 68 54 41 33 28 NOx MtN 7 8 10 13 16 19 19 18 14 11 10 8 Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Bl land-use data, a: Land-use taken from AIM-Bl emulation run. b;C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data), c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-B 1 emulation run), d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-B 1 emulation run. e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Bl emulation ran.
Statistical Table 531 Scenario BlHigh-MESSAGE World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8182 8531 8704 8667 8463 8125 7658 7056 GNP/GDP (тех) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 20.9 26.8 36.7 56.5 88.5 126.0 166.0 212.3 253.8 290.1 322.7 350.3 25.7 33.3 45.7 66.9 96.0 130.3 166.8 208.9 246.1 281.7 313.4 340.2 Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 38 25 20 16 10 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 42 52 54 58 58 44 29 24 14 11 2 1 111 123 152 180 212 238 259 262 242 208 179 161 41 47 58 66 71 75 74 67 62 58 53 45 35 44 57 83 116 152 186 231 264 291 307 313 8 10 17 32 52 76 104 139 173 201 218 213 275 302 359 434 519 593 659 723 755 768 758 732 Primiuy Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 91 91 100 111 103 87 64 50 43 47 60 60 128 155 172 188 204 197 191 162 139 100 70 53 71 83 110 149 215 273 306 324 304 287 263 244 7 8 10 14 20 30 45 66 79 81 80 82 46 44 47 60 79 101 123 159 203 245 280 316 Other Renewables Total 8 13 21 39 63 112 183 272 348 406 431 404 352 393 460 560 682 798 911 1033 1117 1167 1184 1157 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.9 1.8 2.8 3.9 5.0 5.8 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.9 8.5 0.0 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.6 10.6 12.5 14.1 15.5 16.5 17.2 0.0 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.1 6.3 9.0 12.1 15.3 18.4 21.2 23.9 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 165.7 254.0 345.4 440.0 535.2 627.2 712.0 787.5 854.7 915.0 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 1459 1466 1464 1461 1458 1452 1447 1442 1437 1433 1431 1429 3389 3407 3432 3453 3474 3510 3547 3591 3635 3668 3688 3709 0 0 0 59 137 196 254 260 266 261 243 225 4296 4255 4231 4264 4335 4405 4475 4522 4570 4619 4669 4719 3805 3820 3822 3711 3545 3386 3226 3133 3040 2968 2918 2868 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 7.90 8.99 9.97 10.27 10.11 9.57 8.60 Other C02 GtC 1.11 1.07 0.79 -0.03 -0.65 -0.66 -0.67 -0.62 -0.57 Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 8.69 8.96 9.32 9.61 9.44 8.94 8.03 CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 351 385 423 449 468 452 441 7.63 -0.57 7.06 411 6.99 -0.61 6.38 359 6.33 -0.65 5.68 302 N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 62.0 53.8 48.1 39.7 32.4 26.9 24.1 CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 5.4 20.6 327 5.4 17.8 315 5.4 15.5 299 PFC MtC eq. 32 25 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 CO MtCO 879 877 951 1065 1193 1323 1470 1549 1658 NMVOC Mt 139 141 157 177 184 190 199 185 173 43 46 1731 152 46 43 1793 125 45 43 1871 103 NOx MtN 31 32 37 42 47 47 45 40 35 29 26 23 Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Bl land-use data, a: Land-use taken from AIM-B 1 emulation ran. b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data), c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Bl emulation run), d; Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-Bl emulation ran. e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-B 1 emulation run.
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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478 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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Page 504 and 505: 496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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Page 530 and 531: 522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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