Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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Statistical
Table
Scenario BIT-MESSAGE
REF
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 427 433 435 433 423 409 392 374 357 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.8 4.3 6.2 8.2 10.3 12.8 15.3 18.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 2.6 2.2 2.6 3.3 4.3 5.3 6.4 8.2 10.3 12.8 15.3 18.1
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 15 10 10 13 14 16 18 17 14 13 12 10
Gas 14 10 12 12 12 12 9 7 5 4 3 2
Electricity 6 5 6 7 9 12 14 15 15 15 15 15
Others 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5
Total 50 36 37 40 43 47 48 45 41 38 35 32
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 19 12 9 6 3 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0
Oil 20 14 13 15 16 16 18 16 11 9 7 5
Gas 27 21 25 28 33 39 39 38 39 39 34 30
Nuclear 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Biomass 2 1 1 1 1 2 4 6 7 8 9 9
Other Renewables 1 1 1 3 4 5 6 8 8 9 9 10
Total 70 51 50 53 58 65 67 68 66 64 59 54
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0,4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0,7 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.1 2,5 3.0 3.4 3.8
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 21.4 29.5 36.8 43.8 50.0 55.9 62.0 67.9 73.3 77.6
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use "
Million ha
Cropland 268 266 266 266 265 265 264 264 263 263 263 262
Grasslands 341 362 364 366 368 370 372 374 376 378 380 382
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 9 20 29 37 38 39 38 35 33
Forest 966 951 934 933 934 954 973 983 993 1005 1018 1031
Others 701 696 711 702 688 659 630 617 604 592 580 568
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Antlu-opogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 ^ GtC 1.30 0.91 0.86 0.84 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.83 0.78 0.73 0.62 0.52
Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.04 -0.11 -0.12 -0.20 -0.28 -0.23 -0.17 -0.15 -0.14 -0.14
Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.90 0.72 0.74 0.66 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.58 0.48 0.38
CH4 total " MtCH4 47 39 40 41 44 46 45 40 35 31 28 25
N20 total " MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 7.2 4.7 3.0 2.1 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 20 24 26 27 27 27 27 26
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 8
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 4 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 4 4
CO MtCO 69 41 46 50 58 72 81 72 54 48 35 25
NMVOC Mt 16 13 15 18 21 25 28 27 26 25 19 14
NOx MtN 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1
Emissions con-elated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM В1 land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-Bl emulation run.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Bl emulation run),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-Bl emulation am.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Bl emulation run.