Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 World Population Million 5204 6056 6741 7426 8112 8368 8631 8465 8301 7957 7453 6982 GNP/GDP (тех) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 20.9 27.4 37.3 55.9 73.9 99.7 134.5 165.9 204.8 245.7 286.6 334.3 Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 50 46 30 24 17 0 36 39 47 56 62 65 111 119 130 152 173 186 51 59 82 104 131 149 38 50 63 81 103 138 285 311 353 417 485 549 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 52 41 31 24 18 200 202 204 204 200 196 170 161 152 137 117 100 186 228 279 314 324 334 623 652 683 688 668 648 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 93 93 126 162 195 198 143 161 176 177 170 152 73 104 143 183 229 264 6 10 11 14 15 23 50 48 38 56 77 94 204 168 1-38 113 92 75 137 125 115 108 106 103 308 288 270 241 204 172 38 36 33 30 27 25 117 133 150 162 166 171 Other Renewables Total 10 11 14 19 29 49 376 427 508 610 715 781 87 138 220 290 316 344 892 887 926 944 911 890 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.1 1.0 2.1 3.5 5.3 7.0 O.I 1.7 3.4 5.1 6.9 8.2 0.1 1.0 2.2 3.8 5.9 8.1 9.3 10.8 12.5 13.9 14.9 16.0 9.9 11.0 12.3 13.5 14.5 15.7 11.3 13.7 16.6 19.3 21.5 23.8 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 169.3 267.6 375.1 489.7 609.9 725.8 828.4 917.8 994.1 1060.1 Carbon Sequestraction GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 1459 1466 1464 1461 1458 1452 3389 3407 3432 3453 3474 3510 0 0 0 59 137 187 4296 4255 4231 4264 4335 4404 3805 3820 3822 3711 3545 3382 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 1447 1442 1437 1433 1431 1429 3547 3,591 3635 3668 3688 3709 254 260 266 260 242 225 4475 4522 4570 4619 4668 4719 3226 3131 3039 2968 2917 2868 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MlS CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MlCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 5.99 6.90 8.47 10.05 11.50 12.00 1.11 1.07 0.93 0.23 -0.29 -0.31 7.10 7.97 9.39 10.28 11.22 11.69 310 323 358 391 426 437 6.7 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 70.9 69.0 76.3 89.2 92.9 60.7 1672 883 784 291 257 298 32 25 29 32 33 37 38 40 36 37 47 58 879 877 968 981 1076 1146 139 141 157 177 176 171 31 32 35 38 41 41 12.59 11.12 9.86 8.29 7.27 6.40 -0.24 -0.28 -0.19 -0.09 -0.21 -0.26 12.35 10.84 9.67 8.20 7.06 6.15 449 429 410 364 300 248 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.2 42.3 33.1 26.3 22.8 21.4 20.1 338 337 333 327 315 299 42 47 45 43 46 45 68 71 62 46 43 43 1223 1241 1260 1278 1296 1314 167 141 119 97 76 58 40 36 31 28 26 24
Statistical Table 497 Scenario Bl-AIM OECDW 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 801 857 896 935 973 991 1008 1013 1018 1023 1029 10.ад GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (199Û pnces) Trillion USS 16.4 20.7 25.5 31.3 38.5 44 9 52.4 59.1 66.7 74.0 80.5 87.7 Final Energy Non-commercial Sohds Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 1 2 64 70 67 70 68 66 64 60 56 53 50 47 25 31 37 40 43 41 40 35 31 27 23 19 22 27 29 31 33 38 43 50 59 64 66 68 127 141 144 151 153 154 154 153 152 148 142 \Ы Pnmary Energy Coal 0Ü Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 41 34 37 38 38 36 33 26 21 17 14 И 76 88 85 81 69 56 46 39 33 29 28 26 34 51 58 61 63 62 62 54 47 40 34 28 5 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 1 0 4 9 14 20 23 26 28 28 29 Other Renewables Total 6 6 7 9 13 17 22 32 48 60 65 70 167 187 195 201 199 192 192 182 181 180 174 170 Cumulative Resouices Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 04 08 1.1 1.5 1 8 2.5 27 30 3.1 3.3 0.1 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.4 39 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.2 28 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.7 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 64 8 96 5 127.3 156.7 184.3 209 3 230 8 249.1 264.6 277.7 Carbon Sequestraction GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Eneigy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 381 380 378 376 374 370 366 361 357 354 353 352 760 765 772 779 787 809 832 862 893 912 918 924 0 0 0 10 23 32 44 45 46 45 41 39 1050 1059 1074 1094 1117 1133 1149 1154 1159 1167 1179 1192 838 826 805 770 728 682 639 605 574 551 536 522 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 Antlii opogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.24 3.27 3.16 2.96 Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.12 -0.14 -0 11 Total C02 GtC 2.83 3 20 3.18 3.15 3.02 2.85 CH4 lotal MtCH4 73 74 71 69 66 60 N20 total MtN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 SOx total MtS 22 7 17.0 10.4 7.8 7.5 7.2 HFC MtC eq. 19 58 108 103 109 112 PFC MtC eq. 18 13 12 10 8 7 SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 16 5 6 6 CO MtCO 179 161 172 183 200 205 NMVOC Mt 42 36 34 31 28 23 NOx MtN 13 12 11 10 9 7 2 77 -0 08 2.69 54 2.3 6.9 116 7 7 210 18 6 2 34 -0.03 2.31 50 2,2 6.2 117 7 7 209 11 6 1.97 001 1.98 46 2,2 5,5 117 7 8 209 5 5 1,68 0,00 1 68 43 2,1 4.9 119 7 8 209 1 45 -0.03 1.42 41 20 4.3 120 7 8 210 -1 4 1.25 -0 06 1 19 38 2.0 3.8 120 6 8 212 -3 4
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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444 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
Page 454 and 455: 446 Statistical Table Illustrative
Page 460 and 461: 452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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Page 464 and 465: 456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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Page 474 and 475: 466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
Page 480 and 481: 472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 490 and 491: 482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
Page 492 and 493: 484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
Page 506 and 507: 498 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
Page 508 and 509: 500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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Page 530 and 531: 522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
Page 534 and 535: 526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
Page 540 and 541: 532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
Page 550 and 551: 542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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546 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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552 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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