Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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470 Statistical Table Scenario A2-AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 ALM Population Million 1192 1512 1972 2432 2892 3338 3854 4169 4510 4847 5176 5527 GNP/GDP (тех) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 2.4 3.4 5.4 8.1 11.5 16.3 23.1 30.8 41.1 53.2 66.9 84.2 Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 14 20 31 33 34 32 1 3 6 9 13 16 17 22 33 42 53 62 4 9 18 27 39 48 4 7 11 16 23 32 40 60 99 126 163 190 29 22 17 0 0 0 19 21 24 26 27 29 72 85 100 119 143 171 58 64 70 78 87 97 44 58 76 96 119 146 221 253 289 332 384 444 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 5 10 23 37 58 75 27 35 50 52 55 59 9 20 37 53 74 86 0 0 1 1 2 5 14 18 19 37 60 68 97 119 145 171 194 220 62 65 67 66 62 58 100 109 , 120 133 149 167 12 17 24 33 43 56 76 86 97 104 106 109 Other Renewables Total 2 2 3 3 4 6 57 85 132 184 254 297 7 11 17 24 31 41 354 406 470 531 586 651 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.6 3.6 4.9 6.5 8.3 1.7 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.9 5.5 6.7 3.3 4.2 5.4 6.7 8.1 12.5 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 39.9 67.3 99.3 137.0 181.1 232.7 293.4 364.7 447.8 544.3 Carbon Sequestraction GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 371 390 400 409 419 430 1680 1677 1693 1706 1719 1732 0 0 0 47 103 134 1745 1712 1686 1678 1680 1685 1684 1700 1701 1639 1558 1499 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 440 451 462 474 486 498 1744 1755 1765 1775 1785 1794 166 169 172 168 155 143 1689 1689 1688 1687 1686 1685 1440 1416 1392 1376 1368 1359 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 0.72 1.01 1.88 2.47 3.23 3.83 0.73 0.82 0.71 0.42 0.26 0.24 1.45 1.83 2.59 2.89 3.49 4.06 77 85 99 109 121 126 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 10.5 12.8 19.3 23.4 34.2 42.0 0 2 19 32 49 69 4 4 8 12 16 21 3 5 7 10 13 18 396 404 449 391 380 405 48 55 80 94 107 107 7 8 10 12 14 15 4.52 5.34 6.29 7.39 8.64 10.10 0.22 0.24 0.27 0.30 0.29 0.28 4.75 5.58 6.57 7.69 8.93 10.38 131 135 140 143 145 148 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 51.4 61.5 73.5 67.8 48.3 34.5 98 139 181 233 295 336 26 34 39 45 50 52 23 29 32 37 41 43 434 472 516 569 636 714 107 104 102 97 91 86 17 19 21 24 27 30
Statistical Table 471 Marker Scenario A2-ASF World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5282 6170 7188 8206 9170 10715 11296 12139 12587 13828 14743 1.5068 GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.1 25.2 31.9 40.5 51.2 72.3 81.6 101.9 114.1 159.3 218.4 242.8 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy Non-commercial EJ Solids 52 51 58 65 61 58 55 58 61 63 65 67 Liquids 117 150 187 246 275 304 334 371 408 469 552 635 Gas 49 53 65 92 124 155 187 209 231 246 254 262 Electricity 41 48 63 85 125 164 204 247 290 343 405 468 Others Total 257 303 373 488 585 682 779 884 990 1120 1276 1431 Primary Energy EJ Coal 92 90 106 129 184 239 294 415 536 658 781 904 Oil 134 172 220 291 270 249 228 148 69 23 12 0 Gas 71 74 89 126 176 225 275 297 319 330 331 331 Nuclear 8 13 14 17 32 47 62 87 112 147 190 234 Biomass 0 0 6 12 32 52 71 92 112 130 146 162 Other Renewables 8 И 15 20 27 34 42 49 56 65 75 86 Total 313 360 450 595 720 846 971 1088 1204 1353 1535 1717 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.9 9.5 13.1 17.9 31,1 38.3 46.8 Oil 0.0 1.7 3.6 6.2 9.0 11.6 13.9 15.7 16.7 17.0 17.2 17,2 Gas 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.2 6.2 8.7 11.6 14.7 17.9 21.3 24.6 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 170.2 279.3 414.2 568.2 735.7 918.6 U18.8 1339.3 1586.2 1862.4 Carbon Sequestration GtC -1.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.46 11.01 13.53 15.01 16.49 18,49 Other C02 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.12 1.25 1.19 1.06 0.93 0.67 Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.58 12.25 14.72 16.07 17.43 19,16 CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 370 424 486 542 598 654 N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7,0 8.1 9.6 10,7 11.3 12.0 12,9 SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 74.7 99.5 112.5 109.0 105.4 89.6 CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 785 292 258 291 312 384 PFC MtC eq. 32 25 41 51 64 77 92 113 SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 50 64 75 89 104 122 CO MtCO 879 877 977 1075 1259 1344 1428 1545 NMVOC Mt 139 141 155 179 202 214 225 238 NOx MtN 31 32 39 50 61 66 71 75 20.49 0.40 20.89 711 13.9 73.7 457 129 129 1662 251 80 22.97 0.25 23.22 770 14.8 64.7 549 148 135 1842 275 87 25.94 0.21 26.15 829 15.7 62.5 662 168 153 2084 309 28.91 0.18 29.09 889 16.5 60.3 753 178 165 2326 342 109
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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Page 444 and 445: 436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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Page 460 and 461: 452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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Page 474 and 475: 466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
Page 480 and 481: 472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 490 and 491: 482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
Page 492 and 493: 484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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520 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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524 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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544 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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552 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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