Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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100 An Overview of the Scenario Literature 2.4.12. Comparison of Indicators Figure 2-13 illustrates the database distributions of COj, population, gross world product, primary energy, and carbon intensity of energy. The circles closest to the center denote the minimum value of the distribution; the solid circles denote the median value; and the shaded circles represml the maximum database value for each variable. While the values are connected in the form of a snowflake, it is important to note that those of a given range (e.g., minimum, median, and maximum), taken together, do not necessarily yield a consistent or logically possible scenario. As is shown in Chapter 4 (Figure 4-4), actual scenarios may fall into a median range on some axes and into a higher or lower range on others. Snowflake diagrams are useful because they allow the reader to see at a glance the full range of values encompassed by the database. Subsequent snowflake diagrams plot SRES scenario values on the vaiious axes to illustrate where the scenarios fall relative to the database minimum, median, and maximum values. Snowflake diagrams should be used only for purposes of scenario classification and interpretation and not for scenario design, since the latter could lead to logical inconsistencies. 2.5. Conclusions In this chapter a brief overview and evaluation of the emissions scenarios is presented. Much of the quantitative analysis of the emissions scenarios is based on the unique scenario database developed for SRES. This database, its structure, and the process of assembling the data that it now contains are described. The database provides a valuable overview of the various emissions modeling approaches and scenarios in the literature. It is the most comprehensive ESD available, and it can be accessed tlirough a website (www-cger.nies.go.jp /cger-e/db/ipcc.html). The SRES database represents the basis for evaluations of emissions scenarios, their main driving forces, and their uncertainty ranges. The CO, emissions trajectories of the scenarios in the SRES database are presented and their distribution and the associated sample statistics assessed. In the same way, the main driving forces of future emissions - population, economic development and energy consumption - are analyzed. Finally, the possible relationships among these driving forces for the collection of emissions scenarios in the database are considered. Future levels of CO, emissions from the energy sector are a function of population, gross world product, the structure and efficiency of the economy, and the costs and availabihty of different sources of energy. The factor range for population increases by 2100 across the scenarios is between 1.2 and 3.3 times 1990 levels (see Figure 2-4). This is the smallest factor increase of all the emissions driving forces. This probably reflects a relatively high consensus among demographers as to future population growth. However, this observation is based on a relatively small number of reported population projections in the database (46). The range in projected gross world product values is between 3.2 and 35 times the 1990 levels (see Figure 2-5). The range of the factor increase of primary energy consumption is from 0.9 to 10 times 1990 levels (see Figure 2- 8). For energy intensity the range in 2100 is from 9.3 MJ/LJS$ down to 2.3 MJ/US$. The range in carbon intensity of primary energy is the widest range of all the driving forces considered here. It varies from 0.025 to l.I times 1990 levels (about a factor of 45) in the year 2100 (see Figure 2-11). Emissions trajectories are extremely sensitive to a number of driving forces, which include including population growth, economic growth, and energy intensity improvement. Variation in carbon intensity is the main indicator of the wide variation in energy-related COj. However, it is important to recognize that this is a result of the inputs, assumptions, methods, and types of models used to calculate the scenarios. The findings of the analysis of the scenarios in the literature suggest the following general conclusions: • the ranges over which the driving forces vary are large, which contributes to the wide range of future emissions; • of these driving forces, gross world product and population are often exogenous, while carbon and energy intensity are not; • the frequency distributions of driving forces and emissions are asymmetric, with long tails and often more than one peak; • for many driving forces the median and mean are closer to the minimum than to the maximum; • lack of information as to whether climate intervention policies and measures were included in the scenarios, for about 40 scenarios, means that it is not possible to distinguish between intervention and non-intervention scenarios; • it is hoped that IPCC or another international institution will, in the futiu-e, maintain this or a similar .database so as to assure a continuity of knowledge and scientific progress in GHG emissions scenarios (an equivalent database to document narrative and other qualitative scenarios would also be very useful for future climatechange assessments); and • it would be useful in the future to evaluate the consistency of the driving forces and results of all scenarios included in the scenario database. In addition, it would be helpful to extend the database to include land-use change data where currentiy only land-use emissions are presented. As noted above, only a small percentage of scenarios contain information on land use.
hn Overview of the Scenario Literature 101 References: Alcamo, J., A. Bouwman, J. Edmonds, A. Grübler, T. Morita, and A. Sugandhy, 1995: An evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios. In Climate Change 1994, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and An Evaluation of the I P C C 1S92 Emission Scenaiios, J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho, J. Bruce, Hoesung Lee, B.A. Callander, E. Haites, N. Harris and K. Maskell (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 233- 304. Alcamo, J., A. Bouwman, J. Edmonds, A. Grübler. T. Morita, and A. Sugandhy, 1995: An Evaluation of the IPCC 1S92 Emission Scenarios. In Climate Change 1994, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change ami An Evaluation of the I P C C /592 Emission Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 233-304. Alcamo, J., and E. Kreileman, 1996: Emission scenarios and global climate protection. Global Environmental Change, 6(4), 305-334. Alcamo. J., G.J.I. Kreileman, J.C. Bollen, G.I. van den Bom, R. Gerlagh, M.S. Krol, A.M.C. Toet, and H.J.M. De Vrie.s, 1996: Baseline scenarios of global environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 6(4), 261-303. Alcamo, J., G.J.J. Kreileman, J.C. Bollen, G.J. van den Bora, R. Gerlagh, M.S. Krol, A.M.C. Toet, and H.J.M. De Vries, 1998-. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change. In Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century, ResuUs from thi- I M A G E 2.1 Model. J. Alcamo, R. Leemans, E. Kreileman (eds.), Elsevier Science, Kidlington, Oxford, pp. 97-139. Bos, E., and M.T. Vu, 1994.- World Population Projections: Estimates and Projections with Related Demographic Statistics, 1994-1995 Edition, World Bank, Washington, DC. Chattopadhyay, D. and J.K. Parikh, 1993-. CO^ emissions reduction from power system in India, Natural Resources Forum, 17(4). 251 -261. Denieny.P., 1990; Population. \t\The EarthAsTransformedby Human Action. B.L. Tumer II etal. (ed.), Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, pp. 4|- 54. De Vries, H.J.M., J.G.J. Olivier, R.A. van den Wijngaatt, G.J.J. Kreileman, and A.M.C. Toet, 1994: Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios. V/ater, Air Soil Pollution, 76. 79-131. Dignen, J., and S. Hameed, 1989: Global emissions of nitrogen and sulfur oxides from 1860 to 1989. Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association, 39(2), 180-186. Dowlatabadi, H., and M. Kandlikar, 1995: Key Uncertainties in Climate Change Policy: Residís from ICAM-2. Proceedings of the 6"' Global Warming Conference, San Fiancisco, CA. Durand, J.D., 1967: The modern expansion of world population. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 111(3), 136-159. Edmonds, J.A., J. ReiUy, J.R. Trabalka, D.E. Reichle, D. Rind, S. Lebedeff, J.R Palutikof, T.M.L. Wigley, J.M. Lough, T.J. Biasing, A.M. Salomon, S. Seidell D. Keyes and M. Steinberg, 1986: Future Atmospheric Carbon Dioxuie Scenarios and Limitation Strategies. Noyes Publications, Park Ridge, NJ. EMF (Energy Modeling Forum), 1995: Second Round Study Design for E M F 14: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change. Report prepared for the Energy Modeling Fonim, Temían Engineering Center, Stanford University, CA 94305. Gray, v., 1998: The IPCC future projections: are they plausible? Climate Research, 10, 155-162, Grübler, A., 1998: A review of global and regional sulfur emission scenarios. Mitigation cmd Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 3(2-4), 383-418. Hafele, W., J, Anderer, A. McDonald, and N. Nakicenovic, 1981; Energy in a Finite World: Paths to a Sustainable Future. Ballinger, Cambridge, MA, Hafele, W., 1981; Energy in a Finite World: A Global Systems Analysis. Ballinger, Cambridge, MA, USA. 834 pp. (ISBN 0-88410-642-X). Houghton, J.T., G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums (eds.), 1990: Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 365 pp. lEA (International Energy Agency), 1993: Energy Statistics and Balances for O E C D and non-OECD countries 1971-1991 , O B C D . Paris. JEA (International Energy Agency), 1998; Energy Statistics and Balances for O E C D and non-OECD countries. OECD, Paris. IIASA-WEC (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis - World Energy Council) 1995: Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 106 pp. Jefferson, M., 1983: Economic Uncertainty and Business Decision-Making. In Beyond Positive Economics? Wiseman, Jack (ed.). MacmiUan Press, London, pp. 122-159. Kanoh, T., 1992: Toward dematerialization and decarbonization. Science and Sustainability, Selected Papers on lIASA's 20th anniversary. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Kaya, Y., 1990; Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emission Control on GNP Growth: Interpretation of Proposed Scenarios. Paper presented to the IPCC Energy and Industry Subgroup, Response Strategies Working Group, Paris, (mimeo). Kram, T., 1993: National Energy Options for Reducing CO, Emissions. Report of the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP), Annex IV (1990-1993). ECN-C-93-\01, Nelheriands Energy Research Foundation, Petten, the Netherlands. Lazarus, M.L., L. Greber, J. Hall, C. Bartels, S. Bemow, E. Hansen, P Raskin, and D. von Hippel, 1993; Towards a Fossil Free Energy Future: The Next Energy Transition. A Technical Analysis for Greenpeace International. Stockholm Environmental Institute Boston Center, Boston. Leggett, J., W.J. Pepper and R.J. Swart, 1992: Emissions Scenarios for IPCC: An Update. In Climute Change 1992. The Supplementary Report to the I P C C Scientific Assessment. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Callander and S.K. Varney (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Lutz. W., W. Sanderson, and S. Scherbov, 1997: Doubling of world population unlikely. Nature, 387(6635), 803-805. Manne, A. and R. Richels, 1994; The Costs of Stabilizing Global C O , Emissions - a Probabilistic Analysis Based on Expert Judgement. Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA. Manne, A., and L. Schrattenholzer, 1995: International Energy Worlcshop January 1995 Poll Edition. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Manne, A., and L. Schrattenholzer, 1996, International Energy Workshop January 1996 Poll Edition. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Manne. A., and L. Schrattenholzer, 1997: International Energy Worlcshop, Part I: Overview of Poll Responses, Part II: Frequency Distributions. Part III: Individual Poll Responses, February, 1997, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Marland, G, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andres, A.L. Brenkert, and C. Johnston, 1999: Global, Regional, and National C O , Emissions. In Trends Online: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Infonnation Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN. (http;//cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/abstract.htm). Matsuoka, Y., M. Kainuma, and T. Morita, 1994: Scenario analysis of global warming using the Asian-Pacific integrated model (AIM). Energy Policy. 23(4/5), 357-371. Morita, T., Y. Matsuoka, I. Penna, and M. Kainuma, 1994: Global Carbon Dioxide Emission Scenarios and Their Basic Assumptions: 1994 Survey. CGER-1011-94. Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan. Morita, T., and H.-C. Lee, 1998: I P C C SRES Database, Version 0.1, Emission Scenario Database prepared for IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, (http:www-cger.nies.go.jp/cger-e/tlb/ipcc.html). Murthy, N.S., M. Panda, J. Paiikh, 1997: Economic development, poverty reduction and carbon emissions in India, Energy Economics, 19, 327-354. Nakicenovic, N., A. Grübler, H. Ishitani, T. Johansson, G. Marland, J.R. Morena, H.-H. Rogner, 1996: Energy primer. In; Climate Change 1995. Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific Analyses. R. Watson, М.С. Zinyowera and R. Moss (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 75-92. Nakicenovic, N., 1996: Freeing Energy from Carbon. Daedalus, 125(3), 95-112. Nakicenovic, N.. N. Victor, and T. Morita, 1998a: Emissions scenarios database and review of sceitarios. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 3(2-4), 95-120.
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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