Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

CONTENTS
3.1. Introduction 105
3.2. Population 105
3.2.1. Introduction 107
3.2.2. Past Population Trends 107
3.2.3. Population Scenarios 107
3.2.3.1. Population Projections Used in
Emission Scenarios 107
3.2.3.2. Currently Available Population
Projections 108
3.2.3.3. Recent Developments in
Demographic Projections 110
3.2.4. Other Aspects of Population: Aging and
Urbanization 111
3.2.4.1. Aging 111
3.2.4.2. Urbanization 112
3.2.5. Relationships 112
3.2.5.1. Introduction 112
3.2.5.2. The Effect of Economic Growth on
Population Growth 112
3.2.6. Conclusions 113
3.3. Economic and Social Development 114
3.3.1. Introduction 114
3.3.2. Historical Trends 116
3.3.3. Scenarios of Economic Development 118
3.3.4. Relationships 119
3.3.4.1. Introduction 119
3.3.4.2. Influence of Demographics 120
3.3.4.3. Influence of Social and
Institutional Changes 120
3.3.4.4. Influence of Intemational Trade
and Investment 121
3.3.4.5. Influence of Innovation and
Technological Change 121
3.3.4.6. Do the Poor Get Richer and the
Rich Slow Down? 122
3.3.4.7. Economic Productivity and Energy
and Materials Intensity 123
3.3.4.8. Development Pattems 125
3.3.5. Conclusion 127
3.4. Energy and Technology 128
3.4.1. Introduction 128
3.4.2. Energy Use and Emissions by
Major Sectors 128
3.4.2.1. Overview 128
3.4.2.2. Industry and Agriculture 129
3.4.2.3. Residential, Commercial, and
Institutional Buildings 130
3.4.2.4. Transport 132
3.4.3. Energy Resources 133
3.4.3.1. Fossil and Fissile Resources 133
3.4.3.2. Renewable Resources 135
3.4.3.3. Conclusion 137
3.4.4. Energy Supply Technologies 137
3.4.4.1. Introduction 137
3.4.4.2. Fossil and Fissile Energy Supply
Technologies 137
3.4.4.3. Renewable Energy Technologies 138
3.4.4.4. Combined Heat and Power
Production (Cogeneration) 139
3.4.5. Understanding and Modehng
Technological Change 139
3.5. Agriculture and Land-Use Emissions 141
3.5.1. Introduction 141
3.5.2. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from
Anthropogenic Land-Use Change 142
3.5.3. Methane Emissions from Rice Production 144
3.5.4. Methane Emissions from Enteric
Femientation 144
3.5.5. Nitrous Oxides Emissions from
Agriculture 145
3.5.6. Findings Regarding Driving Forces 145
3.5.7. Conclusions 146
3.6. Other Gas Emissions 147
3.6.1. Introduction 147
3.6.2. Nitrous Oxide 147
3.6.3. Methane 148
3.6.4. Sulfur Dioxide 149
3.6.5. Ozone Precursors 153
3.6.5.1 Nitrogen Oxides 153
3.6.5.2. Carbon Monoxide and
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 153
3.6.6. Halocarbons and Other Industrial Gases 154
3.7. Policies 155
3.7.1. Introduction 155
3.7.2. Policy Areas 155
3.7.2.1. Pop. and Social Welfare Policies 155
3.7.2.2. Policies that Target Economic
Development and Technological
Innovation 155
3.7.2.3. Energy, Agriculture and Other
Resource Management Policies 156
3.7.2.4. Environmental Policies 157
3.7.2.5. Transportation and Infrastructure
Policies 157
3.7.3. Quantiñcation of Impacts and
Implementationof Policies in SRES 157
References 158