Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

398
Statistical Table
Scenario AIB-MARIA
REF
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population
Million
413 419 427 433 432 430 423 406 391 374 356 339
GNP/GDP (тех)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
0.9 1.3 1.8 2.6 4.6 8.1 13.7 18.1 22.4 27.1 32.9 40.4
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
EJ
13 9 6 4 3 2 3 6 10 17 27 19
17 14 12 11 12 13 12 8 14 16 26 23
21 24 27 30 41 53 65 70 61 54 38 53
7 8 7 7 9 U 13 14 15 16 17 18
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
58 55 52 53 65 78 93 98 100 102 107 113
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 19 13 9 6 4 3 4 6 10 17 27 19
Oil 19 14 13 12 12 13 12 8 14 16 26 23
Gas 27 33 34 38 52 66 80 86^ 77 69 53 69
Nuclear 3 2 3 4 4 5 7 9 11 13 17 21
Biomass 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other Renewables 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4
Total 69 64 60 61 74 89 106 113 116 120 128 136
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0,5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.3 4.2 4.9 5.6 6.2
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 20.9 28.8 37.2 47.3 59.2 71.8 84.6 97,6 111.6 126.2
Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 174 139 111 89 71
Grasslands 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 78 106 128 146
Forest 815 815 815 815 815 815 827 862 862 862 862 862
Others 722 722 722 722 722 722 710 675 675 675 675 675
Total 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02
GtC
Other C02
GtC
Total C02
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N20 total
MtN20-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN
1..30 0.91 0.79 0.75 0.93 1.14 1.34 1,43 1.50 1..59 1.82 1.78
0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.07 -0.17 -0.21 -0.27 -0.34 -0.33
1.30 0.91 0.81 0.76 0.92 1.11 1.27 1.26 1.29 1.32 1.47 1.45
0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11