Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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460 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl-MiniCAM ALM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Popuiation Miüion 1236 1541 ¡876 2241 2531 2778 2980 3068 3096 3064 2913 2766 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 1.9 na 2.8 na 4.6 na 7.4 na 15.4 na 27.2 na 42.5 na 67.0 na 94.1 na 123.7 155.2 na na 190.4 na Final Energy Non-commercial Soiids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 6 9 12 15 13 11 11 10 10 17 21 26 33 40 56 78 99 118 136 146 156 5 6 9 13 21 26 29 38 46 54 55 56 3 6 9 15 29 47 70 96 120 143 159 176 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 35 49 67 99 141 192 245 296 344 371 399 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 4 5 8 11 22 34 48 50 52 53 52 52 20 22 27 34 41 57 82 105 127 146 156 166 7 9 14 23 40 55 70 95 116 133 134 136 0 2 4 5 12 19 27 29 34 40 45 50 0 1 1 2 4 6 9 12 15 15 15 15 Other Renewables Total 5 6 8 11 15 19 24 33 40 47 53 60 35 45 62 86 133 190 258 324 383 434 456 478 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.3 4.5 5.8 7.4 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.8 5.0 6.3 7.7 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 36.7 58.8 86.9 121.3 162.6 210.9 265.7 325.7 387.2 447.1 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Miiiion ha 391 363 347 344 334 320 303 272 240 207 180 152 1510 1594 1727 1906 2102 2257 2373 2296 2170 1996 1880 1763 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 3641 3591 3480 3308 3121 2975 2868 2970 3128 3341 3487 3633 1957 1884 1800 1707 1674 1661 1668 1664 1673 1695 1766 1837 7499 7432 7354 7266 7231 7213 7212 7204 7213 7240 7313 7385 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 0.72 1.01 1.22 1.54 2.20 3.02 4.00 4.88 5.66 6.32 6.65 7.00 0.73 0.82 0.72 0.95 0.91 0.76 0.48 0.31 0.12 -0.09 -0.58 -1.08 1.45 1.83 1.94 2.49 3.11 3.77 4.48 .5.19 5.77 6.23 6.07 5.92 77 85 89 99 118 130 134 144 150 154 157 160 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.2 10.5 12.8 13.7 14.8 15.3 16.1 17,0 12.4 9.6 8.4 8.3 8.1 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
Statistical Table 461 Scenario Alv2-MiniCAM World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Popuîation Million 5293 5953 6597 7228 7725 8113 8393 8413 8359 8229 8001 7780 GNP/GDP (тех) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 20.7 27.4 36.7 48.4 67.6 91.5 120.2 157.1 197.2 240.8 287.8 339.7 na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 56 68 81 98 110 119 97 82 75 72 68 121 123 130 143 145 164 201 232 262 292 315 337 52 62 77 97 108 113 112 129 148 168 170 172 35 52 80 117 163 214 272 325 374 420 460 .501 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 253 293 355 438 513 602 705 783 866 955 1016 1078 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 88 112 137 163 220 264 295 258 232 217 210 203 131 132 139 151 140 154 195 236 273 308 332 356 70 84 122 183 221 252 277 328 370 405 403 401 24 25 32 44 62 80 98 98 104 115 128 140 0 6 11 17 24 30 37 49 54 54 53 51 Other Renewables Total 24 24 27 31 39 51 66 89 110 129 148 167 336 384 468 589 705 831 968 ¡057 ¡¡44 1227 1273 1318 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.1 1.2 2.4 3.9 6.0 8.4 11.1 13.8 16.2 18.5 20.6 22.7 O.I 1.5 2.8 4.3 5.7 7.2 8.9 11.2 ¡3.7 ¡6.6 ¡9.8 23.1 0.1 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.5 7.9 10.5 13.7 17.2 21.0 25.0 29.0 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 168.5 271.7 395.5 536.0 690.4 853.3 1019.8 1189.0 ¡356.5 1518.5 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 1472 1456 ¡457 1477 1472 1439 1378 1226 1081 943 847 752 3209 3344 3588 3941 4316 4609 4820 4651 4417 4119 3975 3832 0 2 5 11 14 18 20 31 31 20 15 10 4173 4215 4142 3957 3630 3376 3193 3517 3876 4272 4349 4425 4310 4148 3971 3779 3732 3723 3753 3739 3758 3810 3978 4145 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.18 9.91 11.81 13.54 Other C02 GtC !.¡¡ 1.07 1.05 1.51 1.52 1.24 Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.23 11.42 13.34 14.78 CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 353 400 453 504 N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 8.0 9.2 10.7 12.4 SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 76.3 82.8 86.0 81.7 CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 15.39 0.71 16.10 541 14.0 69.9 566 89 119 15.95 0.53 16.49 545 14.6 49.2 654 97 127 16.62 0.18 16.80 550 15.0 35.3 659 106 113 17.39 -0.35 17.04 556 15.3 28.2 654 114 17.79 -1.32 16.47 565 16.2 27.0 639 119 18.22 -2.29 15.93 574 17.2 25.7 614 115 95
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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Page 444 and 445: 436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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Page 460 and 461: 452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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Page 474 and 475: 466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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Page 490 and 491: 482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
Page 492 and 493: 484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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544 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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552 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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