Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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540 Statistical Table Scenario BlHigh-MiniCAM ALM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 1236 1541 1876 2241 2531 2778 2980 3068 3096 3064 2913 2766 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.8 4.6 7.4 14.3 23.7 35.6 .52.0 68.6 85.6 101.5 118.7 na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 7 6 5 5 5 17 21 26 33 37 44 55 68 80 91 99 106 5 7 9 12 15 17 16 19 22 25 26 27 3 6 10 15 30 47 65 88 109 129 137 145 0 0 1 4 И 24 40 52 63 70 75 79 27 36 50 70 101 139 185 235 280 321 341 362 Primary Eneigy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 4 6 8 И 16 22 28 26 24 22 23 25 20 22 27 34 38 46 57 72 85 96 104 112 7 9 16 27 52 74 93 117 137 153 161 169 0 2 3 5 7 10 13 15 15 15 16 17 0 1 2 3 7 13 20 25 27 26 27 27 Other Renewables Total 5 6 8 12 15 23 36 57 78 101 98 96 35 46 65 91 136 188 246 311 366 413 429 446 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas Cumulative C02 Emissions Carbon Sequestration ZJ GtC GtC 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.6 4.4 5.5 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.5 4.7 6.1 7.7 9.3 1.4 17.8 36.6 58.4 85.1 116.3 150.9 189.8 232.8 277.7 322.0 364.2 Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 391 363 342 329 311 289 263 226 191 157 134 111 1510 1594 1719 1884 2033 2131 2177 2045 1895 1727 1628 1528 0 0 0 0 5 16 33 39 38 30 27 25 3641 3592 3492 3343 3203 3111 3065 3227 3415 3629 3753 3876 1957 1884 1812 1740 1724 1722 1736 1740 1762 1799 1890 1980 7499 7432 7365 7296 7276 7269 7273 7277 7300 7343 7431 7520 Anlln'opogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 0.72 1.01 1.24 1.59 2.18 2.78 3.38 3.92 4.40 4.79 5.09 5.40 0.73 0.82 0.68 0.84 0.74 0.54 0.23 0.23 0.06 -0.27 -0.77 -1.27 1.45 1.83 1.93 2.43 2.92 3.31 3.62 4.15 4.46 4.53 4.32 4.13 77 85 90 101 120 134 142 143 145 147 154 160 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.9 6.5 10.5 12.8 13.7 14.5 13.7 12.9 12.1 9.1 7.0 5.6 5.3 5.0 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12 2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14
Statistical Table 541 Scenario B2-AIM World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5262 6091 6851 7612 8372 8855 9367 9638 9917 10129 10271 10414 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 20.9 28.2 36.4 48.4 66.9 86.3 111.2 133.7 160.7 186.9 210.5 237.1 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 50 38 34 30 26 18 13 0 0 0 0 0 Solids 36 43 54 66 77 82 88 84 80 76 72 69 Liquids 111 118 132 146 168 191 217 225 234 241 246 251 Gas 51 54 74 97 123 148 179 193 209 221 228 236 Electricity 38 50 65 81 105 135 175 215 266 311 344 381 Others Total 285 304 359 420 499 578 671 730 795 850 892 936 Primary Energy EJ Coal 93 105 141 180 214 242 278 272 268 262 254 247 Oil 143 160 175 185 188 178 173 154 139 126 113 102 Gas 73 93 123 153 187 226 277 297 320 337 344 352 Nuclear 6 9 13 19 29 35 46 53 63 72 79 88 Biomass 50 48 38 38 53 79 120 144 173 198 215 233 Other Renewables 10 11 13 16 22 32 48 79 132 186 222 264 Total 376 427 502 590 693 793 941 1000 1095 1181 1227 1285 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.1 1.1 2.3 3.9 5.9 8.0 10.8 13.1 15.9 18.7 21.2 24.0 Oil O.I 1.6 3.3 5.1 7.0 8.6 10.6 12.0 13.5 14.9 16.1 17.3 Gas 0.1 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.1 7.0 9.7 12.2 15.4 18.8 22.0 25.9 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 169.4 268.9 380.8 507.1 649.8 801.2 951.5 1100.3 1246.1 1388.4 Carbon Sequestraction GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 1459 3389 0 4296 1481 3409 0 4252 1510 3436 0 4225 1540 34.54 14 4251 1570 3473 92 4292 1598 3508 163 4322 1626 3543 288 4353 1656 3577 312 4380 1686 3610 337 4407 1718 3641 341 4441 1751 3668 324 4481 1784 3696 307 4522 3805 3806 3778 3690 3522 3325 3139 3019 2904 2805 2721 2639 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.51 10.21 11.83 13.24 14.96 14.82 Other C02 GtC 1.11 1.07 0.92 0.26 0.07 0.12 0.24 0.24 Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.43 10.47 11.90 13.36 15.20 15.07 CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 358 391 429 453 482 485 N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 78.3 77.6 69.8 51.9 44.2 38.4 CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 786 299 272 315 346 413 PFC MtC eq. 32 25 42 55 70 88 107 120 SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 48 55 60 76 79 80 CO MtCO 879 877 953 941 1002 1086 1180 1224 NMVOC Mt 139 141 161 179 186 191 197 181 NOx MtN 31 32 35 38 39 40 42 40 14.75 0.26 15.01 489 7.7 34.2 483 128 74 1272 167 38 14.56 0.19 14.76 485 7.8 32.8 548 130 63 1332 153 37 14.24 0.17 14.41 475 7.9 33.3 603 127 65 1407 141 36 13.93 0.10 14.04 465 8.0 33.8 649 121 69 1487 130 34
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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Page 498 and 499: 490 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
Page 500 and 501: 492 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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Page 504 and 505: 496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
Page 508 and 509: 500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
Page 514 and 515: 506 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 530 and 531: 522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
Page 534 and 535: 526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
Page 540 and 541: 532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
Page 550 and 551: 542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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Page 566 and 567: 558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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Page 584 and 585: 576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
Page 586 and 587: 578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
Page 588 and 589: 580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
Page 590 and 591: 582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
Page 592 and 593: 584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
Page 594 and 595: 586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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