Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

114 Scenario Driving Forces
IS92e,f
s о
•С
у
0.05
А2
0.1
IS92a,b
0.4
В2
06
о
0-9 „,
. А1В1
0.95
IS92c,d
О
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Figure 3-8: Compaj-ison of the IS92 population range (dashed lines) with the population range adopted for SRES (solid lines),
which uses the two IIASA variants (low, high) and the UN 1998 Long Range medium projection. The correspondence to the
four SRES scenario families (Al, A2, Bl and B2) is also shown. Generally, the new range is narrower and has significantly
lower medium and high variant population levels, reflecting recent advances in demographic projections. Also for compai-ison,
the probabilistic range of world population projections given by Lutz et al. (1997) is shown.
revision of the UN medium projection compared to earlier UN
scenarios (as outlined above).
The literature suggests a general inverse correlation between
economic growth rates and population growth rates. Higher
economic growth rates in developing countries should correlate
with lower population growth rates in long-term scenarios and
vice versa, because of the importance of economic
development in bringing about the demographic fertility
transition. This represents a distinctive change from the IS92
trajectories. Importantly, there is still no quantitative basis for
associating any particular economic growth curve with a
particular population curve; this is a qualitative negative
correlation only. Even more important is that income is not
necessarily the best predictor of future fertility rates and many
countries are currently moving through the demographic
transition without a clear economic cause. Alternatively, some
countries have failed to begin a fertility decline even though
economic and social conditions have improved (e.g., Sathar
and Casteriine, 1998).
The inclusion of a household demographic unit, in addition to
population, should be encouraged in future studies. The effect
is linked to a strongly predicted demographic trend - aging.
Also important are that smaller households are more energy
intensive, per person, and that aging may continue to increase
more rapidly than population in the future. These factors may
increase COj emissions (MacKellar et al., 1995), although
senior citizens group-living is a tendency in some
industrialized countries. Urbanization might also have a strong
effect on emissions because of its effect on income distribution
and thus energy consumption pattems around the world,
although many of these effects are included implicitly in the
models and parameters used in this report.
3.3. Economic and Social Development
33.1. Introduction
Economic and social development comprises many dimensions
and a number of indicators have been devised to assess
progress and setbacks in human development (see Box 3-1).
The UN defines development as the furthering of human
choices. Such choices are neither finite nor static. Yet,
regardless of the level of development, the three essential
choices are to have access to the resources needed for a decent
standard of living, to lead a long and healthy life, and to
acquire knowledge (UNDP, 1997). Other valued choices range
from political, economic, and social freedom to opportunities
for being creative and productive, and to enjoy human rights
(UNDP 1997).
Arguably, choices are only possible once basic human needs
for food, shelter, health care, safety, and education have been
met. Poverty is therefore an important indicator of the absence
of satisfactory economic development. Alleviation of poverty
is an essential prerequisite for human development. Beyond the
satisfaction of basic needs, the issue of what constitutes
"development" involves many cultural, social, and economic
dimensions that cannot be resolved by scientific methods, but
are inherently a question of values, preferences, and policies.