Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical Table 445
Scenario AIT-AIM
ALM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1865 2211 2557 2761 2980 3024 3067 3013 2866 2727
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 5.3 10.3 19.6 32.1 52.4 69.8 93.0 117.2 139.8 166.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 14 18 17 16 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 2 3 5 9 10 12 9 7 6 5 4
Liquids 17 21 31 43 59 76 99 111 124 133 137 141
Gas 4 8 19 33 48 60 75 80 84 87 88 89
Electricity 4 6 11 17 26 47 87 118 159 191 205 220
Others
Total 40 55 80 115 156 206 274 321 377 417 435 454
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 5 7 14 22 29 31 33 26 20 16 14 12
Oil 27 34 48 58 63 71 79 75 72 67 63 59
Gas 9 18 38 64 88 109 135 140 145 147 148 148
Nuclear 0 0 I 3 6 15 37 37 37 37 36 36
Biomass 14 18 19 27 50 69 96 115 138 154 161 168
Other Renewables 2 2 3 5 9 21 47 80 135 184 203 225
Total 57 80 124 179 246 316 427 472 545 606 625 648
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.7
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.5 6.1 6.7
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.9 5.1 6.6 8.1 9.5 12.5
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 41.1 74.1 111.5 148.3 184.9 220.9 255.2 288.5 321.5 353.6
Carbon Sequestraction
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 357 392 426 449 441 406 374 348 323 297 272 248
Grasslands 1636 1647 1773 2009 2196 2149 2103 2080 2057 2024 1982 1941
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 26 167 257 393 428 466 497 520 543
Forest 1706 1605 1478 1322 1223 1253 1284 1291 1297 1305 1316 1327
Others 1784 1840 1806 1677 1456 1391 1328 1333 1338 1357 1390 1424
Total 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.71 2.45 3.02 3.39 3.80 3.60 3.42 3.29 3.20 3.11
Other C02 GtC 0.73 0.82 1.11 1.35 0.66 0.28 -0.15 -0.05 -0.11 0.06 0.05 0.05
Total C02 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.82 3.79 3.69 3.67 3.65 3.55 3.31 3.35 3.25 3.16
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 106 133 152 154 155 145 136 123 108 94
N20 total MtN20-N 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 20.2 25.7 28.8 35.8 44.2 28.0 17.8 13.7 12.8 12.0
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO 396 404 479 545 506 513 521 550 582 615 650
688
NMVOC Mt 48 55 68 84 99 101 103 100 97 88 75 63
NOx MtN 7 8 12 17 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21