Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

424
Statistical
Table
Scenario AlC-MiniCAM
ASIA
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population
Million
2790 3226 3608 3937 4115 4210 4219 4062 3852 3589 3245 2919
GNP/GDP (mex)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
1.4 3.1 6.5 11.7 23.7 40.0 60.5 85.0 110.3 136.4 162.6 191.2
na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
EJ
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 31 46 64 81 97 110 86 68 56 49 42
14 19 27 37 49 66 88 102 113 122 124 127
2 5 9 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 13 11
4 11 25 47 82 123 170 215 255 288 308 328
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
40 66 107 160 226 300 381 418 451 482 495 509
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
EJ
26 45 73 111 177 252 336 362 313 191 193 195
16 21 29 39 33 27 21 24 28 35 18 2
3 9 21 40 55 67 78 82 ' 87 92 74 55
1 4 9 17 32 47 62 70 78 84 85 86
0 2 5 9 17 26 35 51 64 73 80 86
Other Renewables
Total
3 4 5 6 11 22 37 64 90 115 136 1.57
49 85 142 223 327 442 568 653 661 590 586 581
Cumulative Resources Use
Coal
Oil
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.6 5.8 8.5 12.1 15.3 18.0 20.0 21.9
0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9
0.0 O.I 0.3 0.5 Î.0 1.6 2.4 3.2 4.0 4.9 5.7 6.5
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC
1.5 19.3 44.5 81.8 136.0 209.6 303.9 410.9 516.5 609.1 690.1 766.4
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 389 400 4¡0 420 418 409 392 346 303 263 229 195
Grasslands 508 524 555 602 648 685 7¡4 704 687 662 632 603
Energy Biomass 0 0 2 5 ¡8 32 49 79 99 109 126 ¡43
Forest ¡168 ¡¡44 ¡102 ¡043 986 942 910 936 976 1032 1079 ¡¡27
Others 664 632 600 568 555 550 553 547 548 556 579 60 ¡
Total 2729 2699 2669 2637 2625 26¡8 2618 2612 2613 2622 2645 2668
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil ¥uel C02
GiC
Other C02
GtC
Total C02
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N20 total
MtN20-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN
i.15 1.78 2.80 4.20 6.06 8.09 10.29 ¡0.80 10.15 8.36 8.01 7.68
0.37 0.26 0.20 0.27 0.29 0.27 0.20 0.¡2 0.04 -0.03 -0.15 -0.27
¡.53 2.03 3.00 4.47 6.36 8.36 ¡0.49 ÍO.92 ¡0.19 8.33 7.87 7.41
ИЗ 125 ¡35 ¡48 ¡64 ¡83 206 217 197 145 147 149
2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1
17.7 25.3 38.8 52.8 57.3 50.9 33.6 2¡.4 14.0 11.3 ¡0.4 9.4
0 5 ¡8 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
4 7 ¡2 i9 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37