Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-AIM World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5262 6117 6805 7493 8182 8439 8704 8538 8375 8030 7528 7056 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 20.9 26.6 37.9 56.6 89.7 128.2 183.4 237.8 308.4 382.3 453.3 537.3 Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 50 48 37 35 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 34 47 65 83 88 93 83 74 66 57 48 111 124 159 206 273 342 412 477 543 589 616 643 51 60 86 115 150 204 258 303 348 379 396 413 38 50 71 98 142 220 299 381 464 523 560 596 0 0 0 0 285 315 400 519 674 868 1061 1245 1429 1556 1628 1700 Primary Energy EJ Coal 93 101 140 179 218 212 206 193 180 168 155 144 Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass 143 167 22 Í 290 385 472 73 99 146 206 285 397 6 10 15 26 45 69 50 48 38 34 35 50 582 600 620 640 659 679 560 659. 778 866 910 956 117 140 168 192 208 226 75 126 210 277 286 295 Other Renewables 10 11 13 16 24 37 61 95 150 200 225 253 Total 376 435 573 752 993 1237 1601 1813 2106 2342 2442 2554 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal Oil Gas 0.1 1.0 2.3 3.8 5.8 7.7 0.1 1.7 3.6 6.2 9.6 13.5 0.1 0.9 2.2 3.9 6.4 9.6 10.1 11.8 13.7 15.6 17.1 18.8 19.2 24.2 30.6 37.2 43.4 50.8 14.8 20.2 27.6 36.0 44.4 54.9 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 177.9 307.7 472.1 669.4 904.7 1168.2 1447.0 1739.1 2039.3 2344.5 Carbon Sequestraction GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total 1437 1487 1546 1580 1554 1469 3290 3287 3474 3874 4315 4328 0 0 0 2 68 1.54 4249 4120 3979 3816 3767 3812 3966 4048 3944 3671 3238 3120 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 1389 1266 1154 1052 959 874 4341 4184 4032 3914 3827 3741 348 502 723 879 901 923 3858 3952 4049 4140 4224 4310 3006 2969 2933 2950 3021 3093 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 5.99 6.90 9.67 13.09 17.49 21.11 !.!( 1.07 1.45 1.78 0.52 0.33 7.10 7.97 11.11 14.87 18.01 21.44 310 323 393 470 541 525 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.9 7.8 7.6 70.9 69.0 87.4 100.9 91.4 69.3 1672 883 791 337 369 482 32 25 31 43 61 77 38 40 43 48 66 99 879 877 1226 1552 1747 2008 139 141 181 230 269 273 31 32 40 49 52 50 25.58 27.11 28.77 29.88 30.33 30.80 0.05 -0.03 -0.10 -0.11 -0.07 -0.01 25.62 27.08 28.67 29.76 30.26 30.79 511 449 396 353 319 289 7.5 7.0 6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 64.4 47.0 35.7 30.7 28.9 27.4 566 654 659 654 639 614 89 97 106 114 119 115 119 127 113 88 84 95 2307 2546 2812 3086 3364 3666 279 283 288 268 227 192 49 47 45 43 41 40
Statistical Table 427 Scenario AIG-AIM OF:CD90 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 859 919 960 1002 1043 1062 1081 1086 1091 1097 1103 1110 GNP/GDP (тех) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.4 25.2 31.1 38.3 45.7 54.7 64.7 76.7 90.1 105.2 122.8 Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 6 ] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 64 75 79 85 91 97 104 107 111 П5 120 125 25 34 39 43 47 53 59 65 71 76 80 83 22 28 32 36 42 49 57 67 77 86 96 105 0 0 0 0 127 147 159 173 189 209 229 248 266 284 301 318 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 41 42 43 39 33 34 35 32 29 28 27 27 76 92 98 106 112 121 131 127 124 125 130 136 34 51 60 68 75 90 108 120 134 147 158 170 5 7 10 14 19 20 20 23 26 30 34 38 6 I 0 0 2 6 14 24 40 53 55 57 Other Renewables 6 6 7 8 10 12 14 20 27 35 40 46 Total 167 199 216 233 251 282 322 346 380 416 443 473 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8 Oil 0.1 0.9 i.9 2.9 4.0 5.0 6.4 7.5 8.8 10.1 11.4 12.8 Gas 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.2 4.2 5.2 6.5 8.0 9.4 11.2 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 65.5 100.6 139.4 182.6 232.5 286.1 340.0 394.3 449.3 505.0 Carbon Sequestraction GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland 410 404 389 373 350 336 321 286 255 227 202 180 Grasslands 787 758 7,50 783 834 843 852 817 783 754 728 703 Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 7 20 56 78 108 132 142 152 Forest 1056 1065 1103 1133 1176 1183 1190 I23I 1274 1312 1344 1378 Others 886 912 897 850 772 746 721 716 711 712 720 728 Total 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 Anthi'opogemc Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.42 3.78 4.14 4.68 5.30 5.39 5.48 5.56 5.62 5.68 Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.12 -0.05 -0.12 -0.05 0.04 -0.02 -0.07 -0.10 -0.08 -0.07 Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.30 3.73 4.02 4.63 5.34 5.37 5.41 5.46 5.54 5.61 CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 71 71 71 63 56 51 47 43 41 38 N20 total MtN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 9.9 6.9 6.4 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.3 4.9 4.6 HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125 PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16 SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20 CO MtCO 179 161 175 191 213 231 250 260 270 286 307 330 NMVOC Mt 42 36 37 39 39 34 30 25 21 18 17 16 NOx MtN 13 12 12 12 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 5
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Page 388 and 389: 380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
Page 390 and 391: 3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 394 and 395: 386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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Page 444 and 445: 436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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Page 460 and 461: 452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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492 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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494 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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506 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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