Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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488 Statistical Table Scenario A2-MmiCAM REF Í990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 428 430 439 455 474 495 519 550 585 623 664 707 GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 LI 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.7 4.9 6.4 8,3 10,5 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Solids 13 10 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 Liquids 18 12 8 7 7 7 8 9 11 14 16 17 Gas 19 15 12 10 10 9 7 7 7 8 7 7 Electricity 6 8 11 14 16 20 24 32 41 51 62 73 Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 56 44 39 39 41 43 48 57 68 81 94 106 Primary Energy EJ Coal 18 17 17 18 34 53 76 123 169 214 290 367 Oil 20 14 10 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gas 26 20 18 20 20 19 17 17 ' 19 21 18 16 Nuclear 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 14 17 19 Biomass 0 1 1 2 3 4 6 9 12 14 17 19 Other Renewables 3 3 3 4 5 6 8 11 16 21 28 34 Total 70 58 55 59 72 91 116 171 227 283 370 457 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.2 0,4 0.5 0.8 1,3 1.9 3.0 4.5 6.3 9,1 11,8 Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0,4 0,4 Gas 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 21.1 29.9 40.3 53.1 68.8 89.8 118.1 153.2 197,4 253,9 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland 284 297 317 345 368 382 388 368 353 345 348 350 GrassUmds 395 410 444 498 548 585 611 586 573 572 594 615 Energy Biomass 0 0 1 2 7 14 23 39 49 54 64 74 Forest 1007 1016 995 942 879 836 815 871 906 919 879 839 Others 691 655 621 590 576 559 541 514 496 487 493 498 Total 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 1.30 0.91 0.81 0.83 1.05 1.34 1.68 2.42 3.15 3.90 5.03 6.31 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.10 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.03 -0.06 -0.03 0.00 1.30 0.91 0.84 0.92 1.16 1.42 1.72 2.47 3.18 3.84 5.00 6.31 47 39 45 55 65 74 83 99 118 140 171 203 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 17.0 11.0 10.4 10.0 11.8 13.6 15,4 16.1 16.4 16.2 14.9 13.6 0 4 8 13 20 27 31 37 41 44 48 52 7 4 8 10 14 17 20 25 30 35 40 42 8 6 7 10 12 15 19 24 28 32 36 38
Statistical Table 489 Scenario A2-MiniCAM ASIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 2790 3296 3802 4308 4817 5302 5763 6180 6558 6898 7133 7372 GNP/GDP (тех) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 1.4 3.1 5.5 8.7 13.0 18.3 24.6 33.0 43.1 54.8 69.1 85.2 na na na na na na na na na lU na na Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 33 46 60 68 78 88 88 92 99 102 106 14 20 26 32 35 42 54 66 80 96 112 128 2 5 8 11 11 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 4 11 22 37 49 67 88 120 159 204 259 314 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 70 103 139 163 197 240 284 341 412 485 559 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 26 48 71 96 121 154 192 225 252 273 273 272 16 22 28 34 28 24 22 16 15 17 14 10 3 9 18 31 38 43 48 52 58 67 63 58 1 4 8 13 19 27 38 43 50 61 75 89 0 2 5 8 12 17 23 33 41 48 57 65 Other Renewables Total 3 4 5 6 9 15 23 38 57 80 111 142 49 89 135 187 227 280 345 407 474 546 591 637 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.4 6.1 8.3 10.6 13.2 16.0 18.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 LI 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 0.0 O.l 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.6 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.5 19.3 43.5 76.3 117.2 16.5.4 222.2 287.9 362.0 444.8 534.1 627.8 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 389 508 0 1168 664 2729 403 523 0 1141 630 2697 421 546 1 1100 599 2668 444 578 4 1043 570 2640 461 472 476 462 452 445 439 433 605 630 653 659 665 670 673 676 12 2"' 33 47 56 60 71 83 991 944 904 899 896 895 885 876 557 542 525 501 484 476 481 486 2626 2610 2592 2568 2553 2545 2550 2554 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.15 Other C02 GtC 0.37 Total C02 GtC 1.53 CH4 total MtCH4 113 N20 total MtN20-N 2.3 SOx total MtS 17.7 HFC MtC eq. 0 PFC MtC eq. 3 SF6 MtC eq. 4 CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 1.78 0.26 2.03 125 2.6 25.3 5 5 7 2,60 0.20 2.79 133 2.8 36.8 11 11 11 3.50 0.27 3.77 143 3.1 46.0 18 15 16 4.14 0.28 4.42 152 3.4 51.1 27 20 20 4.96 0.25 5.21 163 3.7 55.8 38 25 27 5.97 0.19 6.16 176 3.9 60.2 54 32 34 6.85 0.13 6.98 180 4.1 59.5 77 42 43 7.77 0.06 7.84 184 4.3 56.1 100 49 49 8.72 0.00 8.72 186 4.5 50.1 130 56 55 9.14 0.01 9.15 179 4.8 43.5 167 64 62 9.57 0.01 9.59 172 5.0 36.9 204 67 67
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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Page 474 and 475: 466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
Page 480 and 481: 472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 490 and 491: 482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
Page 492 and 493: 484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
Page 504 and 505: 496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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Page 530 and 531: 522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
Page 534 and 535: 526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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538 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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540 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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544 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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552 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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