Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

532 Statistical Table
Scenario BlHigh-MESSAGE
OECD90
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1043 1069 1081 1084 1089 1098 1108 1110
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.6 25.5 31.1 37.2 43.5 49.8 56.2 63.0 70.5 78.6 86.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 14.1 17.7 22.1 27.0 32.4 37.9 43.5 49.2 55.3 62.1 69.3 76.8
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 10 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 66 69 75 75 73 70 71 68 66 62 58 55
Gas 22 28 31 30 31 30 25 20 14 12 10 7
Electricity 22 28 34 42 50 58 64 70 76 83 88 92
Others 1 1 1 5 7 9 11 15 17 19 19 18
Total 124 136 146 155 162 168 171 173 174 175 175 173
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 38 33 34 35 30 14 7 7 4 1 1 1
Oil 72 84 83 75 64 55 48 38 31 24 18 14
Gas 33 45 53 62 81 91 95 86 90 104 114 116
Nuclear 6 7 8 9 11 16 27 42 50 47 38 32
Biomass 6 8 8 13 17 20 23 31 40 50 62 68
Other Renewables 4 5 8 13 17 27 34 37 37 39 41 43
Total 159 182 194 207 220 224 233 240 252 264 275 274
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Oil 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.4 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.0
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.6 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.7
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 65.2 97.1 127.7 155.5 180.2 202.2 222.4 241.9 261.3 280.1
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 381 380 378 376 374 370 366 361 357 354 353 352
Grasslands 760 765 772 779 787 809 832 862 893 912 918 924
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 10 23 33 44 45 46 45 42 39
Forest 1050 1059 1074 1094 1117 1133 1149 1154 1159 1167 1179 1192
Others 838 826 805 770 728 684 639 607 574 551 537 522
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.32 3.27 3.14 2.73 2.46 2.16 2.00 1.99 2.01 1.96
Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.13 -0.16 -0.14 -0.12 -0.08 -0.04 -0.04 -0.08 -0.12
Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.25 3.14 2.98 2.59 2.34 2.08 1.96 1.94 1.93 1.84
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 71 69 66 62 59 56 53 53 53 53
N20 total MtN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 9.1 2.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.9
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 108 103 109 112 116 117 117 119 120 120
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 16 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
CO MtCO 179 161 166 170 163 162 157 164 171 177 180 166
NMVOC Mt 42 36 36 35 32 31 30 29 29 29 24 18
NOx MtN 13 12 13 13 13 11 9 7 6 4 3 2
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Bl land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-B 1 emulation run.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 eiTiissions from land-use changes (AIM-Bl emulation run),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-B1 emulation run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Bl emulation run.