Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

538
Statistical
Table
Scenario BlHigh-MiniCAM I990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Kfc/1
Population Million 428 425
426 433 434 431 423 408 392 374 357 340
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 1.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) TriUion ( 1990 prices) na na
Final Energy
Primary Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 0 0
Solids 13 10
Liquids 18 11
Gas 19 15
Electricity 6 8
Others 0 0
Total 56 44
EJ
Coal 18 17
on 20 13
Gas 26 20
Nuclear 3 4
Biomass 0 1
1.4 2.0 3.0 4.1 5.3 7.1 9.2 11.4 13.4 15.5
na na na na na na na na na na
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 7 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 1
8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6
13 13 11 9 7 6 6 5 5 5
11 16 20 23 24 24 23 23 22 21
0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1
40 44 45 44 43 41 39 36 35 33
16 16 16 16 17 9 6 5 5 5
10 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
20 28 31 30 24 22 19 17 16 15
5 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2
1 2 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 3
Other Renewables 3 3
Total 70 57
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2
Oil 0.0 0,2
Gas 0.0 0.2
4 5 6 8 13 16 18 19 17 16
56 67 69 70 69 62 57 53 50 46
0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0
0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3
:i.2 30.7 41.0 51.1 60.1 67.9 74.8 80.0 83.5 85.2
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Million ha
284 293 300 304 297 282 259 211 169 131 115 99
395 410 453 523 588 631 652 576 502 428 417 406
0 0 1 2 5 7 7 3 1 0 0 0
1007 1016 997 948 889 857 851 973 1081 1177 1163 1150
691 657 628 602 598 600 609 613 624 642 682 722
2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02
GtC
Other C02
GtC
Total C02
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N20 total
MtN20-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN
1.30 0.91 0.84 0.95 0.95 0.91 0.82 0.65 0.53 0.46 0.44 0.43
0.00 0.00 0.03 0.08 0.09 0.07 0.00 0.11 0.09 -0.04 -0.19 -0.34
1.30 0.91 0.87 1.02 1.04 0.97 0.82 0.75 0.62 0.42 0.26 0.09
47 39 47 63 72 82 92 86 86 90 100 111
0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.9
17.0 11.0 9.9 9.5 9.1 8.1 6.5 3.8 2.1 1.3 1.4 1.6
0 4 9 15 20 24 26 27 27 27 27 26
7 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 8
8 6 4 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 4 4