Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
449
Illustrative Scenario AIT-MESSAGE
ASIA
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3261 3620 3937 4147 4238 4220 4085 3867 3589 3258 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 5.8 13.5 27.2 44.9 65.3 95.8 126.9 155.5 186.5 218.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 5.J 8.3 13.5 22.8 36.2 52.2 70.0 96.8 126.9 155.5 186.5 218.2
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 24 15 11 8 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 19 38 51 60 63 38 24 21 21 13 1 0
Liquids 13 22 38 56 86 120 152 157 156 149 142 131
Gas 2 3 8 14 22 40 54 73 77 72 62 45
Electricity 4 8 15 30 51 70 98 128 160 183 201 222
Others 1 3 5 11 15 18 25 35 46 59 74 89
Total 62 88 128 178 241 289 356 414 459 476 479 486
Primiffy Energy
EJ
Coal 30 51 71 96 122 102 79 57 39 40 26 12
Oil 15 26 39 55 76 91 102 95 90 60 45 31
Gas 3 5 14 28 48 74 98 108 101 88 81 68
Nuclear 0 1 2 4 8 15 27 43 65 74 65 48
Biomass 24 23 27 33 44 59 83 108 123 132 132 142
Other Renewables 1 3 6 15 26 44 79 130 191 261 343 435
Total 74 108 160 231 323 385 467 540 609 655 692 736
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.7 4.8 5.6 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.2
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.1 3.1 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.5 7.0
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.7 3.8 4.8 5.7 6.5
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.5 19.3 44.3 77.8 122.4 174.6 227.3 276.5 319.5 355.3 383.4 403.2
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use "
Million ha
Cropland 438 435 434 433 432 431 431 430 429 428 428 428
Grasslands 608 606 609 611 613 615 617 618 619 621 622 624
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 17 37 68 99 117 134 138 127 117
Forest 535 522 512 524 535 535 535 544 552 556 555 555
Others 583 601 609 579 547 515 483 456 429 421 431 441
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.73 3.90 5.26 5.36 5.19 4.65 4.06 3.29 2.47 1.52
Other C02 " GtC 0.37 0.26 0.22 -0.13 -0.12 -0.04 0.03 -0.03 -0.09 -O.IO -0.04 0.01
Total C02 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.95 3.77 5.14 5.32 5.22 4.62 3.97 3.19 2.43 1.53
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 152 185 225 226 227 200 167 147 130 110
N20 total " MtN20-N 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 32.3 35.4 35.8 22.8 16.3 13.4 11.6 8.8 6.6 5.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO 235 270 340 422 564 663 784 853 896 914 866 777
NMVOC Mt 33 37 47 58 70 75 82 82 83 76 63 41
NOx MtN 7 9 12 17 23 26 28 26 22 18 15 12
Emissions con-elated to land-use change and defoiestation were calculated by using AIM Al marker land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-Al marker run.
b-.C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM AIT run),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM Al marker run.
t: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM AIT run.