Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

408
Statistical Table
Scenario AlB-MiniCAM
REF
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population
Million
428 425 426 433 434 431 423 408 392 374 357
340
GNP/GDP (тех)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
1.1 1.1 1.4 2.1 3.5 5.1 6.9 10.0 13.6 17.8 21.8 26.3
na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
EJ
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 10 9 9 8 8 8 6 4 4 4 4
18 12 9 11 12 14 16 19 21 23 23 24
19 15 13 15 15 15 15 16 17 18 11 5
6 8 13 21 33 44 56 68 79 89 94 98
0 0 0 1 I 2 3 4 4 4 3 1
56 44 45 57 70 84 98 112 125 137 134 132
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nucleiir
Biomass
EJ
18 17 19 22 30 34 34 24 18 17 19 22
20 13 11 13 10 9 12 18 22 24 25 27
26 20 22 34 47 53 54 58 60 60 36 12
3 4 6 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 23 31
0 1 2 3 7 10 12 14 13 12 12 12
Other Renewables
Total
3 3 4 5 7 14 26 41 56 70 75 80
70 58 64 87 111 132 151 169 184 197 191 184
Cumulative Resources Use
Coal
Oil
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1,2 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8
0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.7 2,2 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.8
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC
1.3 12.3 21.7 33.1 48.1 66.0 85.3 104.4 122.9 141.1 157.0 168.8
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Million ha
284 294 304 317 322 321 312 273 230 183 158 134
395 410 454 527 609 676 729 684 616 526 488 451
0 0 1 4 17 26 31 32 28 20 18 16
1007 1016 996 945 861 792 738 818 928 1066 1109 1151
691 657 622 584 569 563 567 570 575 582 604 626
2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.94 1.23 1.56 1.77
Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.08 0.13 0.13
Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.97 1.31 1.69 1.90
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 49 68 82 96
N20 total MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 l.l 1.4
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 10.1 10.1 10.7 9.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN
1.8S
0.10
1.94
108
1.6
6.4
32
21
21
1.77
0.10
1.87
106
1.6
3.4
33
22
19
1.73
0.09
1.83
108
1,6
1.7
33
23
15
1.73
0.08
1.81
112
1.5
1.4
34
24
14
1.51
-0.13
1.38
99
1.5
1.8
33
25
10
1.31
-0.34
0.97
86
1.6
2.2
31
24
11