Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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174 An Overview of Scenarios • The A2 storyhne and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is selfreliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in high population growth. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are more fragmented and slower than in other storylines. • The Bl storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same low population growth as in the Al storyline, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives. • The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with moderate population growdi, intennediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the В1 and AI storylines. While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels. These storylines are presented in more detail in Section 4.3, which includes their original quantitative indicators that served as input to the scenario quantification process. 42.2. Scenarios All SRES scenarios were designed as quantitative "interpretations" (quantifications) of the SRES qualitative storylines. Each scenario is a particular quantification of one of the four storylines. The quantitative inputs for each scenario involved, for instance, regionalized measures of population, economic development, and energy efficiency, the availability of various forms of energy, agricultural productivity, and local pollution controls. Each participating modeling group (see above) used computer models and their experience in the assessment of long-range development of economic, technological, and environmental systems to generate quantifications of the storylines. The models used to develop the scenarios are: • Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) from the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES) in Japan (Morita et al, 1994). • Atmospheric Stabilization Framework Model (ASF) from ICF Consulting in the US (Lashof and Tirpak, 1990; Pepper et al, 1998; Sankovski et al., 2000). • Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) from the National Institute for Public Health and Hygiene (RIVM) in the Netherlands (Alcamo et al, 1998; de Vries et al., 1994, 1999, 2000), used in connection with the Central Plarming Bureau (СРВ) WortdScan model (de Jong and Zalm, 1991), the Netherlands. • Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation (MARIA) from the Science University of Tokyo in Japan (Mori and Takahashi, 1999; Mori, 2000). • Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) from the International Institute of AppHed Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria (Messner and Strubegger, 1995; Riahi and Roehrl, 2000). • The Mini Cfimate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in the USA (Edmonds etal, 1994, 1996a, 1996b). A more detailed description of the modeling approaches is given in Appendix IV. Some modeling teams developed scenarios that reflected all four storylines, while some presented scenarios for fewer storylines. Some scenarios share hannonized^ input assumptions of main scenario drivers, such as population, economic growth, and final energy use, with their respective designated marker scenarios of the four scenario families and underlying storyhnes (see Section 4.4.1). Others explore scenario sensitivities in titese driving forces through alternative interpretations of the four scenario storylines. Table 4-1 lists all SRES scenarios, by modeling group and by scenario family, and indicates which scenarios share harmonized input assumptions of important driving forces of emissions at the global level and at the level of the four SRES regions. Altogether, the six modeling teams formulated 40 alternative SRES scenarios All the qualitative and quantitative features of scenarios that belong to the same family were set to conform to the corresponding features of the underlying storyline. Quantitative storyline targets recommended for use in all scenarios within a given family included, in particular, population and GDP growth assumptions. Most scenarios developed within a given family follow these storyline recommendations, but some scenarios offer alternative interpretations. Scenarios within each family vary quite substantially in such characteristics as the assumptions about availability of fossil-fuel resources, the rate of energyefficiency improvements, the extent of renewable-energy development, and, hence, resultant GHG emissions. This variation reflects the modeling teams' altemative views on the plausible global and regional developments and also stems from differences in the underlying modeling approaches. After the modeling teams had quantified the key driving forces and made an effort to harmonize them with the storylines by ' The harmonization criteria agreed by the writing team are indicated in Table 4-1. The classification of scenarios is quite robust against varying the percentage deviation harmonization criteria (see Section 4.4.1).
An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table 4-1: Characteristics of SRES scenario quantifications. Shown for each scenario is the name of the storyline and scenario family, full scenario name (ID), descriptive scenario name, and which of the driving forces are harmonized at the global and regional level, and on the global level only, respectively. The listed harmonized driving forces are population (POP), gross domestic product (GDP), and final energy (FE), see also Section 4.4.1. and Table 4-4. Marker scenarios are indicated in bold and are harmonized by definition, and additional illustrative scenarios, then are also harmonized are given in italics. The lower table indicates the harmonization criteria in terms of the maximum deviation (%)from the specified common population, gross world product, and final energy development at the global and regional levels. Storyline Scenario ID Scenario Name Harmonized Drivers (on World and SRES Regional Level) Harmonized Drivers (on World Level) Al AlB-AIM Al FE, GDP, POP by definition FE, GDP, POP by definition AlB-ASF Al POP GDP, POP A IB-IMAGE Al POP GDR POP A IB-MARIA Al — POR GDP"^ AlB-MESSAGE Al FE, GDR POP FE, GDP, POP AlB- MiniCAM Al POP POP, GDP^ AlC-AIM Al coal FE, GDP, POP FE, GDP, POP AlC-MESSAGE Al coal POP FE, GDR POP AlC-MiniCAM Al coal POP POP AIG-AIM Al oil and gas FE, GDP, POP FE, GDP, POP AIG-MESSAGE Al oil and gas POP FE, GDP, POP AlG-MiniCAM Al oil and gas POP POP GDP'' AIT-AIM^ Al technology GDP, POP GDP, POP AIT-MESSAGE" Al technology POP GDP, POP AIT-MARIA" Al technology - POP Alvl-MiniCAM*^ Alvl POP POP Alv2-MiniCAM'' Alv2 - - A2 A2-AIM A2 POP FE, POP A2-ASF A2 FE, GDP, POP by definition FE, GDP, POP by definition A2G-IMAGE'= A2 gas - POP A2-MESSAGE A2 FE, GDP, POP FE, GDP, POP A2-MiniCAM A2 POP POP A2-Al-MiniCAMb A2-A1 - - Bl Bl-AIM Bl POP GDR POP Bl-ASF Bl POP GDR POP BI-IMAGE Bl FE, GDP. POP by definition FE, GDP, POP by definition В1-MARIA Bl - POP В1-MESSAGE Bl FE, GDR POP FE, GDR POP В1-MiniCAM Bl POP GDR POP BIT-MESSAGE Bl technology FE, GDP, POP FE, GDR POP BlHigh-MESSAGE Bl high POP GDP, POP BlHigh-MiniCAM Bl high POP POP B2 B2-AIM B2 FE, GDR POP FE, GDR POP B2-ASF B2 POP POP B2-IMAGE'^ B2 — — B2-MARIA B2 — FE, GDR POP B2-MESSAGE B2 FE, GDP, POP by definition FE, GDR POP by definition B2-MimCAM B2 — GDP B2C-MARIA B2 coal — FE, GDP, POP B2High-MiniCAM B2 high — GDP continued on next page
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 229 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios 231 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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