Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

508 Statistical Table
Marker Scenario Bl-IMAGE
REF
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 412 429 437 443 445 443 432 419 401 384 365 347
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion USS 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.7 2.8 4.3 6.2 8.2 10.3 12.8 15.4 18.1
1990 US$/cap " 2307.2 1675.8 2335.2 3864.4 6258.7 9702.5 14328.5 19522.7 25650.8 33306.4 42087.4 52209.7
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 3 2 2 2 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Solids 14 10 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2
Liquids 21 12 11 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 5
Gas 15 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6
Electricity 9 5 7 11 14 18 20 20 19 18 17 16
Others 0 1 1 1 2 2
3 3 3 3 3 3
Total 62 40 37 40 42 46 46 45 41 38 35 32
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 36 18 13 12 12 14 14 12 9 8 6 5
Oil 28 13 14 16 16 18 18 16 13 11 10 8
Gas 25 15 15 18 19 20 18 17 15, 13 11 10
Non-Fossil Electric 1 1 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 8
Biomass 1 1 I 2 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
Other Renewables 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total 95 52 48 52 56 63 64 60 54 48 43 39
Cumulative Resources Production ZJt"
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0
Oil 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 20.9 29.0 36.0 41.8 47.4 52.3 55.4 57.2 58.3 59.2
Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 278 217 219 209 190 173 154 141 128 117 106 98
Grasslands ' 392 300 321 319 286 248 211 187 170 162 155 148
Energy Biomass 1 0 1 4 12 28 41 51 57 58 50 46
Forest 1146 1177 1175 1282 1295 1310 1350 1378 1410 1443 1459 1480
Others 461 583 562 463 495 519 521 521 512 498 507 506
Total 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278
Antliropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.81 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.81
Other C02 ' GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.10 -0.31 -0.35 -0.36 -0.38
Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.80 0.81 0.60 0.56 0,55 0.43
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 38 42 44 40 34 33
N20 total MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 9.0 7.7 6.9 7.0 6.5 5.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 20 24 26 27
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 6 6 7 8 9 10
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 4 7 7 8 9 9
CO MtCO 69 41 28 23 20 19 19 17
NMVOC Mt 16 13 12 12 11 11 11 10
NOx MtN 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 0
0.61
-0.41
0.20
30
0.4
4.6
27
9
7
15
0.51
-0.36
0.15
27
0.4
3.9
27
8
6
13
9
1
0.41
-0.34
0.06
24
0.3
3.0
27
8
4
12
0.41
-0.29
0.12
21
0.3
2.5
26
8
4
9
a: NOT ppp-coirected.
b: NOT use but production
c; Net Ecosystem Production (NEP).
d; Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species,
e: Permanent pasture: FAO category "land for grass & fodder species",
f: Approximate calculation from complex land-use module.