Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Open
Process
377
Preliminary B2 Marker Scenario-ALM (Open process version, date of submission: 11/2/98)
1990 2020 2050 2100
Population in Million
1192
2263
3289
4139
GNP/GDP (тех) in Trillion US$90 "
GNP/GDP (ppp) in Trillion (1990 prices) "
1.9
3.8
5.5
8.2
22.8
23.9
66.8
64.9
Final Energy by Fuel in EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Other (e.g. H-,)
Total
14.2
1.3
17.0
3.5
3.4
0.0
39.4
10.7
2.6
36.7
9.8
10.5
4.3
74.6
4.0
2.4
60.7
28.3
40.0
16.6
152.0
2.7
4.6
93.3
51.5
119.2
34.5
305.8
Primary Energy by Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
Other Renewables
Synfuel Trade
Total
4.7
20.5
8.1
0.1
14.3
1.7
0
49.4
4.7
42.4
27.4
0.4
16.6
8.3
0
99.8
6.6
49.7
94.5
7.8
43.5
31.7
-17.1
216.7
42.9
13.7
125.8
38.7
151.8
62.1
2.4
437.4
Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
1.0
0.4
0.3
2.4
1.7
1.1
4.2
8.1
Cumulative COj Emissions in GtC
0.0
28.3
81.0
235.6
Land Use in Million ha ^
Forests
Grasslands
Cropland
Energy Biomass
Other
Total
1706.0
1635.6
357.4
0.0
1784.2
5483.2
1316.6
1958.5
448.4
15.0
1744.7
5483.2
1319.0
2075.9
394.8
258.5
1435.0
5483.2
1344.3
2068.2
311.1
378.7
1380.9
5483.2
Anthropogenic Emissions (not standardized)''
CO2 (as Cf in GtC
Other CO2 (as 0*= in GtC
Total CO2 (as C) in GtC
CH4 total (as СЩ in Mt СЩ
N2O total (as N) in Mt N,0-N
SO^ total (as S) in MtS
CO (as CO) in Mt CO
VOCs in Mt
NO^ (as N) in MtN
0.8 1.5 2.5 3.7
0.8 1.2 -0.2 -0.1
1.6 2.6 2.3 3.7
75.9 114.1 153.4 153.6
1.0 1.3 0.8 0.8
8.7 12.3 17.4 16,8
423.7 495.9 472.5 1019.7
62.8 85.7 76.0 60.4
7.4 10.3 12.0 16.3
" тех = market exchange rate; ppp= purchasing power parity
COj emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data).
Land-use data taken from AIM B2 emulation run.
Other non-energy emissions categories were calculated based on AIM B2 land-use change estimates and/or AIM B2 non-energy emissions
^ COj emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 emulation run)
Note: Subtotals may not add due to independent rounding.