Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

96 An Overview of the Scenario Literature
2.4.9. Primary Energy Consumption Histograms
The final two histograms, Figures 2-9a and 2-9b, give the global
primary energy consumption ranges for 2050 and 2100, indexed
to 1990. The total range in 2100 is between 330 EJ and 3400 EJ,
which corresponds to difference of more than a factor of ten
This factor range is about the same as the factor range for gross
world product (10.7) and much larger than that for population.
(a)
40
35 -
IS92 a, b, d, f
2050
2100
e
s
30
25 -
20 -
N=145
Mean=862
Median=880
Standard Deviation=6.5
N=127
Mean=I503
Median=1510
-i • Standard Deviation=14.7
01
15
•a 10 -
ce
1
2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5
Range (index, 1990=1)
П—г
8.5 9 9.5 10
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.S 9 9.5 10
Range (Index, 1990=1)
370 740 lUO 1480 1850 2220 2590 2960 3330 3700
Range (E J)
\ \ ¡ I I I I \ I I I I I I I I I I L
370 740 1110 1480 1850 2220 2590 2960 3330 3700
Range (E J)
Figure 2-9a: Histogram showing frequency distribution of
global primary energy consumption in 2050 for 145
scenarios. The upper horizontal axis shows indexed primary
energy consumption (1990 = 1); the lower axis indicates
approximate absolute values by multiplying the index by the
1990 value (370 EJ). For reference, primary energy
consumptions of the IS92 scenarios are indicated. The
frequency distribution associated with scenarios from the
literature does not imply probability of occurence.
Figure 2-9b: Histogram showing frequency distribution of
global primary energy consumption in 2100 for 127
scenarios. The upper horizontal axis shows indexed primary
energy consumption (1990 = 1); the lower axis indicates
approximate absolute values by multiplying the index by the
1990 value (370 EJ). For reference, primary energy
consumptions of the IS92 scenarios are indicated. The
frequency distribution associated with scenarios from the
literature does not imply probability of occurrence.