Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
435
Scenario AIG-MESSAGE
ALM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 4.4 9.8 20.0 34.3 53.5 76.5 98.7 122.5 147.2 173.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Tiillion (1990 prices) 3.8 5.1 7.5 13,3 22.8 36.7 55.3 76.5 98.7 122.5 147.2 173.1
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 14 10 9 8 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 5 6 6 9 13 17 10 11
8 2 1
Liquids 17 24 33 49 70 90 111 151 174 190 186 179
Gas 4 6 11 16 26 43 63 83 91 109 138 159
Electricity 3 5 9 19 40 68 110 158 199 234 266 288
Others 0 2 3 6 9 14 20 26 31 38 45 46
Total 39 51 71 104 159 231 324 428 506 579 635 672
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 5 5 8 12 19 23 35 47 71 59 36 8
Oil 21 31 39 51 72 91 119 175 197 212 199 170
Gas 8 14 24 41 73 126 192 273 321 385 482 555
Nuclear 0 0 1 2 6 11 18 27 38 51
68 92
Biomass 14 14 17 24 36 53 70 86 12! 168 183 182
Other Renewables 2 4 7 12 21 32 47 62 75 88 98 102
Total 49 67 96 142 225 335 481 670 822 961 1065 1109
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0,2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.9
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 1,0 1.5 2.2 3.1 4.3 6.0 8.0 10.1 12.1
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0,5 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.8 7.5 10.7 14.5 19.3
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 37.1 59,2 88.2 128.5 184.5 263.6 365.5 481.8 607.3 736.0
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use »
Million ha
Cropland 371 385 384 383 382 381 381 380 379 379 378 378
Grasslands 1680 1673 1685 1695 1702 1708 1714 1718 1722 1726 1730 1733
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 42 90 165 240 282 324 333 308 284
Forest 1745 1711 1690 1683 1680 1681 1682 1681 1680 1678 1676 1674
Others 1684 1710 1720 1676 1625 1544 1463 1419 1374 1364 1387 1411
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 ^ GtC 0.72 1.01 1.43 2,03 3.15 4.47 6.41 9.16 11.0! 12.07 12.88 12.78
Other C02 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.60 0.36 0.25 0.19 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.03
Total C02 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.03 2,39 3.40 4.66 6.54 9.28 11.11 12.15 12.93 12.82
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 98 114 134 155 180 Î90 192 181 179
168
N20 total ' MtN20-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0,7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 14.0 14,7 15.8 16.5 18.8 18.6 18.7 16.4 14.9 13.3
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO 396 404 423 469 535 634 782 967 1154 1378 1473 1573
NMVOC Mt 48 55 61 70 82 98 122 152 159 169 184 191
NOx MtN 7 8 9 12 17 22 30 40 45 49 53 56
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Al marker land-use data,
a; Land-use taken from AIM-AI marker run.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Al marker run),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker ran.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker run.