Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

More documents

Recommendations

Info

224 An OverView of Scenarios Table 4-15: Global primary energy supply structure (%) in the A2 scenarios for the year 2100. (See also Figures 4-8 to 4-10 for cumulative fossil resource use.) ASF AIM MiniCAM IMAGE " MESSAGE Coal 53 50 50 18 45 Oil
An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.7. B2 Scenarios The B2 (MESSAGE) marker scenario first follows a trend toward increasing shares of gas, followed by renewables, and finally - as oil and gas start to become scarce - increasingly returns to coal. By 2100, the B2 scenario ends up somewhere in the middle of the triangle in Figure 4-11 (i.e., it relies on a broad, diversified mixture of different primaiy energy sources). This global diversification results from heterogeneous trends at the regional level and is largely a function of the more modest assumpfions concerning technology improvements and oil and gas resource availability (compared to other scenario families, in particular Al and Bl) that are characteristic of the B2 scenario family. By 2100, the main primary energy carriers are biomass (23%), coal (22%), oil and gas (29%), and other renewables and nuclear (26%). Countries with low income and high resource availability continue to rely on fossil fuels up to the end of the 2P* century, such as China (mainly coal), Fonner Soviet Union (mainly gas), and Middle East (first oil and later gas). Regions with low resource availability, such as Africa and South America, rely on renewables and nuclear. The decreasing share of coal and oil in the primary energy structure of OECD countries is substituted by the growing share of renewables, gas, and nuclear. A major characteristic of the B2 scenario is the increasing importance of synthetic liquid fuels in the second half of the 2P' century, because of a continuous phase out of conventional oil in all regions. 4.4.8.8. Harmonized and Other B2 Scenarios Altemative B2 scenarios show a great diversity in changes in energy systems structures compared to the B2 marker. Common to all scenarios is their gradual transition away from conventional oil and gas, which are assumed to be comparatively scarce in the B2 scenario storyline. However alternative scenarios depict very different trends for this structural change, ranging from increased reliance on coal and coal-derived synfuels (B2-ASF, B2High-MiniCAM) to more biomass- and nuclear-intensive scenarios (B2-AIM, B2- MARIA, and B2-IMAGE). Generally, this reflects the considerable uncertainty as to direction and pace of technological change in the technologically more fragmented worid described in the B2 scenario storyline. B2-MiniCAM anticipates a strong reliance on oil and natural gas as transitional fuels, with a share in primary energy of about 50% over the next 100 years to 2100 (i.e., gas shares in B2- MiniCAM are as high as in the AIG scenario group). In tum, B2-ASF suggests an increasing reliance on coal and coalderived synfuels. A third group of scenarios tends to follow similar directions of structural change as those of the B2- marker - a gradual introduction of post-fossil alternatives (with different weights for nuclear and renewables as a function of technological progress), along with gas (or in some scenarios coal-derived synfuels) as transitional technology options. Structural changes in energy systems of the various B2 scenarios largely follow the main directions of the marker scenario developed with a particular model. That is, differences in alternative B2 scenarios appear to relate strongly to differences in model parametrizations derived from the respective marker scenario rans, most notably in the domains of resource availability and technology (see Sections 4.4.6 and 4.4.7). Thus, B2-ASF depicts structural changes in energy technologies and systems akin to the trends of the A2 marker scenario, whereas B2-AIM and B2-IMAGE largely follow the pattems of change of their marker scenarios (Al and Bl, respectively). Altemative pattems of change are illustrated by the B2-MiniCAM and B2-MARIA scenarios, which have also explored scenario sensitivities by developing altemative B2 scenario quantifications (B2C-MARIA, B2High-MiniCAM) that show a higher reliance on coal (and hence higher GHG emissions). 4.4.9. Land-Use Changes The main driving forces for land-use changes are related to increasing demands for food because of a growing population and changing diets. In addition, numerous other social, economic, and institutional factors govern land-use changes, such as deforestation, expansion of cropland areas, or their reconversion back to forest cover (see Chapter 3). Global food production can be increased, either thi-ough intensification (e.g., using multi-cropping, raising cropping intensity, applying fertilizers, new seeds, improved farming technology) or through land expansion (e.g., cultivating land, converting forests). Especially in less developed countries, many examples show the potentials for intensification of food production in a more or less ecological way that may not lead to higher GHG emissions (e.g., multi-cropping; agro-forestry). Different assumptions on these processes translate into altemative scenarios of future land-use changes and GHG emissions, most notably CO^, methane (CH^), and nitrous oxide (N2O). A distinguishing characteristic of several models (e.g., AIM, IMAGE, MARIA, and MiniCAM) used in SRES is the explicit modeling of land-use changes from expanding biomass uses, and hence exploration of possible land-use conflicts between the energy and agricultural sectors. The con"e.sponding scenarios of land-use changes are summarized in Table 4-17 and Figure 4-12 for the four SRES marker scenarios and all SRES scenarios. The distinction in scenario groups is related to the energy system and is thus not relevant in this section. As discussed further in Chapter 5, model treatment of land-use change and base-year parameterization differ substantially. Therefore, comparisons between different models can yield substantial differences. Land-use change assumptions for each of the marker scenarios are described below. More detailed inter-model comparisons of land-use change and emissions models, as well as a deeper analysis of potentials and rates of change of main driving force variables, such as agricultural productivity growth and dietary changes, remain an important area for future research.
Page 2 and 3:
E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
Page 4 and 5:
PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
Page 6 and 7:
Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
Page 8 and 9:
Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
Page 10 and 11:
C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
Page 12 and 13:
4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
Page 14 and 15:
6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
Page 16 and 17:
8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
Page 18 and 19:
lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
Page 20 and 21:
Summary for Policymakers such as fe
Page 22 and 23:
14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
Page 24 and 25:
16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
Page 26 and 27:
18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
Page 28 and 29:
Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
Page 30 and 31:
CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
Page 32 and 33:
24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
Page 34 and 35:
26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
Page 36 and 37:
28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
Page 38 and 39:
30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
Page 40 and 41:
32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
Page 42 and 43:
34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
Page 44 and 45:
36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
Page 46 and 47:
38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
Page 48 and 49:
40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
Page 50 and 51:
42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
Page 52 and 53:
44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
Page 54 and 55:
46 Technical Summary does not exist
Page 56 and 57:
48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
Page 58 and 59:
50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
Page 60 and 61:
52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
Page 62 and 63:
54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
Page 64 and 65:
56 Technical Summary References: Al
Page 67 and 68:
1 Background and Overview
Page 69 and 70:
Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
Page 71 and 72:
Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
Page 73 and 74:
Background and Overview 65 interven
Page 75 and 76:
Background and Overview 67 powerful
Page 77 and 78:
Background and Overview 69 1900 195
Page 79 and 80:
Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
Page 81 and 82:
Background and Overview 73 1900 195
Page 83 and 84:
Background and Overview characteriz
Page 85 and 86:
2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
Page 87 and 88:
An Overview of the Scenario Literat
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
Page 111 and 112:
3 Scenario Driving Forces
Page 113 and 114:
Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
Page 115 and 116:
Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
Page 117 and 118:
Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
Page 119 and 120:
Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
Page 121 and 122:
Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
Page 123 and 124:
Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
Page 125 and 126:
Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
Page 127 and 128:
Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
Page 129 and 130:
Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
Page 131 and 132:
Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
Page 133 and 134:
Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
Page 135 and 136:
Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
Page 137 and 138:
Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
Page 139 and 140:
Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
Page 141 and 142:
Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
Page 143 and 144:
Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
Page 145 and 146:
Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
Page 147 and 148:
Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
Page 149 and 150:
Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
Page 151 and 152:
Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
Page 153 and 154:
Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
Page 155 and 156:
Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
Page 157 and 158:
Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
Page 159 and 160:
Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
Page 161 and 162:
Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
Page 163 and 164:
Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
Page 165 and 166:
Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
Page 167 and 168:
Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
Page 169 and 170:
Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
Page 171 and 172:
Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
Page 173 and 174:
Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
Page 175 and 176:
4 An Overview of Scenarios
Page 177 and 178:
An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
Page 179 and 180:
An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
Page 181 and 182: An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
Page 183 and 184: An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
Page 185 and 186: An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
Page 187 and 188: An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
Page 189 and 190: An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
Page 191 and 192: An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
Page 193 and 194: An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
Page 195 and 196: An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
Page 197 and 198: An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
Page 199 and 200: An Overview of Scenarios 191
Page 201 and 202: An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
Page 205 and 206: An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
Page 207 and 208: An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
Page 209 and 210: An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
Page 211 and 212: An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
Page 213 and 214: An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
Page 215 and 216: An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
Page 219 and 220: An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
Page 221 and 222: An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
Page 223 and 224: An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
Page 225 and 226: An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
Page 227 and 228: An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
Page 231: An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
Page 235 and 236: An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
Page 241 and 242: An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
Page 243 and 244: An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
Page 245 and 246: An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
Page 247 and 248: Emission Scenarios
Page 249 and 250: Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
Page 251 and 252: Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
Page 253 and 254: Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
Page 255 and 256: Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
Page 257 and 258: Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
Page 259 and 260: Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
Page 261 and 262: Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
Page 263 and 264: Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
Page 265 and 266: Emission Scénarios 257 is between
Page 267 and 268: Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
Page 269 and 270: Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
Page 271 and 272: Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
Page 273 and 274: Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
Page 275 and 276: Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
Page 277 and 278: Emission Scenarios 269 technically
Page 279 and 280: Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
Page 281 and 282: Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
Page 283 and 284:
Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
Page 285 and 286:
Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
Page 287 and 288:
Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
Page 289 and 290:
Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
Page 291 and 292:
Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
Page 293 and 294:
Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
Page 295 and 296:
Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
Page 297 and 298:
Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
Page 299 and 300:
Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
Page 301 and 302:
6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
Page 303 and 304:
Summary Discussions and Recommendat
Page 305 and 306:
Page 307 and 308:
Page 309 and 310:
Page 311 and 312:
Page 313 and 314:
Page 315 and 316:
Page 317 and 318:
Page 319 and 320:
Page 321 and 322:
Page 323 and 324:
Page 325 and 326:
Page 327 and 328:
Page 329:
SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
Page 332 and 333:
324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
Page 335 and 336:
II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
Page 337 and 338:
SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
Page 339 and 340:
Ill Definition of SRES World Re
Page 341:
Definition of SRES World Regions Me
Page 344 and 345:
336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
Page 346 and 347:
338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
Page 348 and 349:
340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
Page 350 and 351:
342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
Page 352 and 353:
344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
Page 354 and 355:
346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
Page 356 and 357:
348 Data Description Database Descr
Page 358 and 359:
350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
Page 361 and 362:
Open Process
Page 363 and 364:
Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
Page 365 and 366:
Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
Page 367 and 368:
Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
Page 369 and 370:
Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
Page 371 and 372:
Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
Page 373 and 374:
Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
Page 375 and 376:
Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
Page 377 and 378:
Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
Page 379 and 380:
Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
Page 381 and 382:
Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
Page 383 and 384:
Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
Page 385:
Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
Page 388 and 389:
380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
Page 390 and 391:
3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
Page 392 and 393:
384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
Page 394 and 395:
386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
Page 396 and 397:
Page 398 and 399:
Page 400 and 401:
392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
Page 402 and 403:
Page 404 and 405:
Page 406 and 407:
Page 408 and 409:
Page 410 and 411:
Page 412 and 413:
Page 414 and 415:
4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
Page 416 and 417:
Page 418 and 419:
Page 420 and 421:
412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
Page 422 and 423:
Page 424 and 425:
416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
Page 426 and 427:
Page 428 and 429:
Page 430 and 431:
Page 432 and 433:
Page 434 and 435:
426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
Page 436 and 437:
Page 438 and 439:
Page 440 and 441:
Page 442 and 443:
Page 444 and 445:
436 Statistical Table Illustrative
Page 446 and 447:
Page 448 and 449:
Page 450 and 451:
442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
Page 452 and 453:
Page 454 and 455:
Page 456 and 457:
Page 458 and 459:
Page 460 and 461:
452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
Page 462 and 463:
Page 464 and 465:
456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
Page 466 and 467:
Page 468 and 469:
Page 470 and 471:
462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
Page 472 and 473:
464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
Page 474 and 475:
466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
Page 476 and 477:
Page 478 and 479:
Page 480 and 481:
Page 482 and 483:
Page 484 and 485:
476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
Page 486 and 487:
Page 488 and 489:
Page 490 and 491:
482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
Page 492 and 493:
484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
Page 494 and 495:
Page 496 and 497:
Page 498 and 499:
Page 500 and 501:
Page 502 and 503:
Page 504 and 505:
496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
Page 506 and 507:
Page 508 and 509:
500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
Page 510 and 511:
Page 512 and 513:
Page 514 and 515:
Page 516 and 517:
Page 518 and 519:
Page 520 and 521:
512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
Page 522 and 523:
Page 524 and 525:
Page 526 and 527:
Page 528 and 529:
Page 530 and 531:
522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
Page 532 and 533:
Page 534 and 535:
526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
Page 536 and 537:
Page 538 and 539:
Page 540 and 541:
532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
Page 542 and 543:
Page 544 and 545:
Page 546 and 547:
Page 548 and 549:
Page 550 and 551:
542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
Page 552 and 553:
Page 554 and 555:
Page 556 and 557:
Page 558 and 559:
Page 560 and 561:
Page 562 and 563:
554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
Page 564 and 565:
556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
Page 566 and 567:
558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
Page 568 and 569:
Page 570 and 571:
Page 572 and 573:
Page 574 and 575:
Page 576 and 577:
Page 578 and 579:
Page 580 and 581:
572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
Page 582 and 583:
574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
Page 584 and 585:
576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
Page 586 and 587:
578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
Page 588 and 589:
580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
Page 590 and 591:
582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
Page 592 and 593:
584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
Page 594 and 595:
586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
Page 596 and 597:
588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
Page 598 and 599:
590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
Page 600 and 601:
592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
Page 602 and 603:
594 Glossary of Terms standards for
Page 605 and 606:
XII List of Major IPCC Reports
Page 607:
List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
show all

Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?