Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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396 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 World Population Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8048 8207 8704 8536 8372 8028 7527 7056 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 19.4 25.8 35.7 51.9 75.4 114.4 179.7 230.1 287.9 355.9 430.8 535.6 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy Non-commercial Solitls Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 48 37 38 27 19 13 138 165 200 252 293 350 56 66 98 139 189 243 35 52 63 79 90 116 0 0 0 0 0 0 278 321 399 496 591 723 26 48 84 140 207 145 403 402 486 481 583 651 303 345 287 303 213 273 157 187 218 256 301 363 0 0 0 0 0 0 889 984 1075 1180 1303 1432 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 90 69 61 45 33 24 123 144 168 201 220 250 71 105 142 188 246 305 22 29 40 61 99 162 28 39 56 88 103 121 34 54 87 142 209 146 285 229 263 208 208 226 354 399 ' 344 363 279 345 240 321 402 505 625 797 132 184 230 278 380 429 Other Renewables Total 9 8 7 7 6 21 343 393 475 589 706 882 68 71 73 73 71 67 1113 1258 1400 1570 1770 2011 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.0 0.0 1.2 2.7 4.4 6.4 8.6 0.0 0.7 1.8 3.2 5.1 7.5 3.2 3.5 4.1 5.0 6.4 8.5 U.l 13.9 16.2 18.8 20.9 23.0 10.6 14.1 18.1 21.5 25.2 28.0 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 166.3 258.4 358.7 468.5 591.1 720.5 852.4 990.3 1139.9 1.301.4 Carbon Sequestraüon GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 1451 1451 1605 2000 2174 2222 3395 3395 3245 2850 2676 2604 0 0 0 0 0 39 4138 4142 4158 4186 4217 4267 4061 4057 4038 4010 3978 3914 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 2355 2080 1810 1539 1278 1162 2601 2593 2597 2597 2597 2597 43 326 592 872 1572 1932 4312 4366 4366 4358 3918 3673 3734 3681 3681 3681 3681 3681 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossi! Fue/ C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 5.99 6.90 7.77 8.69 9.65 10.93 LU 1.07 1.03 0.93 0.79 0.58 7.10 7.97 8.80 9.61 10.44 11.51 1672 883 791 337 369 482 32 25 31 43 61 77 38 40 43 48 66 99 12.66 12.74 13.45 14.07 14.48 14.24 0.36 0.13 0.05 0.00 1.38 2.20 13.01 12.87 13.50 14.07 15.86 16.44 566 654 659 654 639 614 89 97 106 114 119 115 119 127 113 88 84 95
Statistical Table 397 Scenario AlB-MARIA OECD90 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1035 1046 1081 1085 1091 1096 1103 1110 GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 15.6 18.9 22.7 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 27.0 32.0 38.2 46.0 57.7 71.3 88.4 105.8 123.9 Final Energy Non-comjnercial EJ Solids 12 8 6 Liquids 71 76 71 Gas 28 32 52 Electricity 21 28 31 Others 0 0 0 Total 132 145 160 4 3 2 7 15 28 49 65 46 68 65 64 59 51 80 73 92 89 70 82 92 99 111 80 80 56 88 36 39 42 47 52 59 67 77 87 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 177 188 199 212 230 248 269 290 309 Primary Energy EJ Coal 38 28 21 Oil 71 77 71 Gas 34 55 80 Nuclear 18 15 18 Biomass 6 4 3 16 13 10 12 19 31 51 67 47 68 65 64 59 51 80 73 92 87 105 121 135 133 147 120 124 106 143 23 28 35 43 54 68 85 105 131 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 3 Other Renewables 5 5 4 Total 171 182 198 4 3 3 19 23 24 24 23 21 217 232 247 267 294 323 357 395 431 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 Oil 0.0 0.7 1.5 Gas 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.4 3.1 2.2 2.9 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.8 7.7 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.3 6.6 8.1 9.3 10.5 11.6 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 65.6 100.0 136.0 172.5 208.1 243.2 281.5 324.4 372.2 422.8 Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Land Use Million ha Cropland 378 378 378 Grasslands 756 756 756 Energy Biomass 0 0 0 Forest 756 756 756 Others 794 794 794 Total 2684 2684 2684 378 378 378 378 378 378 357 295 237 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 82 141 756 756 778 816 834 834 834 834 834 794 794 772 734 716 716 716 716 716 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 Anthi-opogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.31 Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.33 CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 3.49 3.60 3.71 3.64 3.86 4.34 4.77 5.30 5.25 0.05 0.05 -0.04 -0.19 -0.28 -0.27 -0.26 -0.23 -0.20 3.55 3.65 3.67 3.44 3.58 4.07 4.51 5.07 5.05 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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Page 388 and 389: 380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
Page 390 and 391: 3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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446 Statistical Table Illustrative
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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454 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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