Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

448 Statistical Table
Illustrative Scenario AIT-MESSAGE
REF
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population
Million
413 419 427 433 435 433 423 409 392 374 357 339
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 J.O 2.1 5.4 9.4 12.6 16.2 20.0 24.4 29-2 34.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
2.6 2.2 2.5 3.7 6.0 9.4 12.6 16.2 20.0 24.4 29.2 34.4
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids
9 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids
15 11 10 12 14 14 12 13 13 14 16 17
Gas 14 11 14 17 22 26 27 26 23 19 13 9
Electricity
Others
Total
6 6 7 10 14 20 23 26 28 32 34 34
7 6 6 9 13 13 12 12 11 11 12 13
50 38 41 51 65 72 73 76 76 76 75 73
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
EJ
19 14 11 13 17 16 11 4 2 1 8 8
20 15 13 14 15 14 12 12 8 6 5 3
Gas 27 23 29 32 40 44 50 63' 72 70 46 31
Nuclear- 1 1 1 1 4 9 10 9 5 3 3 2
Biomass 2 1 1 1 3 4 7 10 12 14 16 19
Other Renewables 1 1 2 4 6 7 12 14 19 26 42 52
Total 70 54 56 65 84 95 101 112 117 120 119 116
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 LO 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.1 3.8 4.5 5.0
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 22.2 32.6 43.7 55.7 66.5 77.0 88.0 98.7 108.1 115.4
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use "
Million ha
Cropland 268 266 265 265 265 264 263 262 262 261 260 260
Grasslands 341 361 364 366 367 368 370 371 371 372 373 374
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 3 6 11 16 19 22 23 21 20
Forest 966 950 918 904 894 899 905 909 912 916 922 927
Others 701 698 728 738 745 733 722 715 709 703 700 696
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 •> GtC 1.30 0.91 0.88 1.00 1.22 1.24 1.16 1.20 1.20 1.11 0.91 0.66
Other C02 « GtC 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.01 0.00 -0.08 -0.15 -0.12 -0.09 -0.07 -0.06 -0.05
Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.06 1.01 1.22 1.17 1.01 1.09 1.11 1.03 0.84 0.61
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 42 49 58 58 54 52 48 43 36 30
N20 total = MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 7.5 4.9 5.2 4.5 4.1 1.8 1.2 0.7 3.0 3.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO 69 41 49 61 82 98 112 121 118 105 90 75
NMVOC Mt 16 13 16 20 25 31 34 39 37 33 30 26
NOx MtN 5 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Al marker land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-Al marker run.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM AIT run),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM Al marker run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM AIT run.