Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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Statistical
Table
Scenario BIT-MESSAGE
World
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population
Million
5262 6117 6888 7617 8182 8531 8704 8667 8463 8125 7658 7056
GNP/GDP (тех)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
20.9 26.8 36.2 52.1 73.1 100.7 135.6 171.6 208.5 249.8 290.0 328.4
25.7 33.3 44.6 61.6 82.2 108.4 140.0 171.8 204.1 242.5 281.3 318.8
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
EJ
38 27 22 16 10 8 6 0 0 0 0 0
42 51 58 52 47 38 21 16 6 2 I 1
111 123 158 192 224 250 261 244 215 191 L56 131
41 47 63 73 87 101 97 92 76 52 41 33
35 44 62 89 120 151 174 196 204 208 203 193
8 10 16 27 36 47 57 68 84 96 103 95
275 303 379 449 524 593 616 616 586 548 503 452
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
EJ
91 91 109 109 98 77 39 19 7 4 2 2
128 155 172 189 203 197 190 159 124 96 68 48
71 84 119 159 212 258 258 258 •234 210 183 166
7 8 11 16 27 43 48 42 24 17 18 21
46 45 53 68 86 107 123 138 148 148 138 128
Other Renewables
Total
8 13 24 43 62 97 161 230 303 347 372 348
352 395 488 583 687 779 819 846 840 822 780 714
Cumulative Resources (Jse
Coal
Oil
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.0 5.0 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5
0.0 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.6 10.6 12.5 14.1 15.3 16.3 16.9
0.0 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.3 6.5 9.0 11.6 14.2 16.5 18.6 20.5
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC
7.1 82.4 167.6 258.2 349.2 439.5 523.3 595.5 655.3 703.8 742.3 772.5
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use "
Million ha
Cropland 1459 1466 1464 1461 1458 1452 1447 1442 1437 1433 1431 1429
Grasslands 3389 3407 3432 3453 3474 3510 3547 3591 3635 3668 3688 3709
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 59 137 196 254 260 266 261 243 225
Forest 4296 4255 4231 4264 4335 4405 4475 4522 4570 4619 4669 4719
Others 3805 3820 3822 3711 3545 3386 3226 3133 3040 2968 2918 2868
Total 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949
pogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossii Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.26 9.U 9.77 9.61 8.48 7.26 5.92 4.92 3.96 3.33
Other C02 " GtC LU 1.07 0.79 -0.03 -0.65 -0.66 -0.67 -0.62 -0.57 -0.57 -0.61 -0.65
Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.05 9.08 9.11 8.95 7.81 6.63 5.35 4.35 3.35 2.68
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 357 387 426 455 465 446 427 385 326 268
N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 64.7 52.4 44.5 36.9 29.1 24.3 19.2 15.9 13.3 11.4
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 327 315 299
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 43 46 45
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 46 43 43
CO MtCO 879 877 1000 1129 1271 1414 1460 1426 1333 1192 1063 966
NMVOC Mt 139 141 164 183 192 199 194 171 143 114 87 68
NOx MiN 31 32 39 45 51 53 49 44 36 28 21 16
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Bl land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-B 1 emulation run.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Bl emulation run),
d; Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-Bl emulation run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Bl emulation run.