Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

512 Statistical Table
Scenario Bl-MARIA
OECD90
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1035 1046 1081 1085 1091 1096 1103 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 15.6 19.6 24.7 31.0 36.4 43.3 50.6 55.3 60.3 66.5 72.2 78.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) TrilUon (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 12 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0
Liquids 71 74 66 60 59 58 57 78 72 66 62 59
Gas 28 27 44 58 66 71 77 59 68 76 81 85
Electricity 21 26 29 32 34 37 39 41 42 44 46 47
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 132 136 145 155 162 168 175 179 182 186 189 191
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 38 28 21 16 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 4
Oil 71 74 66 60 59 58 57 78 72 66 61 57
Gas 34 47 72 94 107 117 115 99 106 112 116 117
Nuclear 18 15 12 11 13 15 19 21 26 32 40 48
Biomass 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 7
Other Renewables 5 5 4 4 3 3 14 14 16 17 16 16
Total 171 171 178 187 196 204 214 221 227 235 242 248
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1,6
Oil 0.0 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.2 6.0 6.6 7.2
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.7 5.8 6.8 7.9 9.0 10.2
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 65.3 98.7 133.3 168.9 204.2 239.2 274.5 309.6 344.4 378.9
Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 303 243 195
Grasslands 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 134 182
Forest 756 756 756 756 756 756 768 780 780 780 780 780
Otheis 794 794 794 794 794 794 782 770 770 770 770 770
Total 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 3.20
Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00
Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20
3.25
0.03
3.27
3.35
0.05
3.40
3.43
0.08
3.51
3.50
0.11
3.61
3.40 3.53
0.05 -0.01
3.46 3.55
3.51
0.01
3..52
3.46
0.04
3.50
3.40
0.07
3.46
3.33
0.09
3.43
CH4 total MtCH4
N20 total
MtN20-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC MtC eq. 19 58
PFC MtC eq. 18 13
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23
CO
NMVOC
NOx
MtCO
Mt
MtN
108
12
16
103
10
5
109
112
7
116
7
7
117
7
7
117
7
119
7
120
7
120
6