Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical Table 481
Scenario A2-MESSAGE
World
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6170 7188 8206 9170 10715 11296 12139 12587 13828 14743 15068
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 20.9 25.2 31.9 40.5 51.2 72.3 81.6 101.9 114.1 159.3 218.4 242.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 25.7 31.2 39.7 50.5 63.3 82.2 106.0 132.2 155.2 180.1 208.0 225.6
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 38 23 26 24 22 20 18 17 16 16 15 15
Solids 42 39 27 20 13 24 32 30 21 9 7 6
Liquids 111 137 181 235 279 284 296 302 352 391 456 501
Gas 41 51 58 68 85 105 132 162 145 156 143 161
Electricity 35 46 60 82 109 147 184 230 277 337 397 459
Others 8 11 17 28 44 65 88 113 137 158 180 200
Total 275 306 368 457 552 645 750 855 947 1066 1197 1342
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 91 83 97 122 157 211 273 342 458 569 735 871
Oil 128 171 208 253 274 244 205 146 109 86 64 47
Gas 71 86 108 135 173 208 245 292 268 285 281 289
Nuclear 7 9 13 17 22 34 47 62 79 97 116 136
Biomass 46 41 42 50 69 97 141 194 245 271 287 299
Other Renewables 8 14 21 34 50 77 103 132 165 196 228 280
Total 352 404 489 610 745 871 1014 1168 1323 1504 1710 1921
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.9 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.5 7.6 10.3 13.7 18.3 24.0 31.4
Oil 0.0 1.5 3.2 5.3 7.8 10.5 13.0 15.0 16.5 17.6 18.4 19.1
Gas 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.0 5.8 7.9 10.3 13.2 15.9 18.8 21.6
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 169.6 274.1 398.1 537.8 690.5 855.3 1034.3 1234.7 1466.3 1732.3
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Million ha
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 » GtC
Other C02 >
GtC
Total C02
GtC
CH4 total "
MtCH4
N20 total "
MtN20-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN
5.99 6.90 8.34 10.32 12.28 13.66 15.11 16.46 18.38 21.10 24.90 28.21
1.11 1.07 1.11 1.14 1.05 0.96 0.81 0.59 0.38 0.22 0.10 -0.02
7.10 7.97 9.45 11.46 13.33 14.62 15.91 17.05 18.76 21.32 25.00 28.19
310 323 363 418 489 592 671 743 803 900 993 1069
6.7 7.0 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.1
70.9 69.0 68.3 79.8 94.2 106.5 103.6 99.0 83.8 74.3 68.1 68.7
1672 883 785 292 258 291 312 384 457 549 662 753
32 25 41 51 64 77 92 113 129 148 168 178
38 40 50 64 75 89 104 122 129 135 153 165
879 877 972 1100 1246 1396 1585 1810 2075 2250 2426 2646
139 141 170 204 229 239 242 241 247 262 281 311
31 32 38 47 56 61 66 71 78 87 97 no
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A2 land-use data.
a:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data).
b; C02 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f).
c: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-A2 run.
d: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-A2 run.