Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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Statistical
Table
Scenario Bl-MiniCAM
ASIA
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2790 3226 3608 3937 4115 4210 4219 4062 3852 3589 3245 2919
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.4 3.1 6.4 11.5 21.7 34.1 48.6 63.3 77.6 91.5 103.9 117.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 20 27 34 42 46 46 41 29 20 16 14 13
Liquids 14 18 23 29 34 40 47 50 53 55 55 55
Gas 2 5 8 13 15 16 16 16 15 15 15 15
Electricity 4 10 19 32 47 63 81 95 105 113 111 109
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 40 59 84 115 141 165 185 189 194 200 196 193
Primaiy Energy
EJ
Coal 26 39 53 68 79 79 68 47 33 25 22 20
Oil 16 19 25 32 35 41 49 53 56 57 58 58
Gas 3 8 18 33 44 51 54 52 ' 48 44 43 42
Nuclear I 3 7 11 18 23 26 24 21 17 17 17
Biomass 0 2 4 7 9 11 12 14 14 13 12 11
Other Renewables 3 4 5 7 12 28 54 79 100 117 105 94
Total 49 75 111 157 197 232 263 269 272 272 257 242
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.2 3.0 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.4
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.6
Gas 0.0 O.l 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.2
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.5 19.3 42.2 71.6 107.2 145.8 184.3 219.3 249.8 276.1 299.3 320.4
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 389 400 406 408 399 381 354 302 255 213 186 160
Grasslands 508 524 554 600 641 671 691 673 648 615 593 572
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forest 1168 1144 1108 1060 1027 1012 1017 1086 1159 1236 1283 1330
Others 664 633 606 584 583 587 596 597 608 628 665 701
Total 2729 2700 2674 2652 2650 2651 2657 2659 2671 2692 2728 2763
Anthr-opogenic Emissions (standaidized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.36 3.08 3.58 3.78 3.68 3.20 2.84 2.59 2.52 2.46
Other C02 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.19 0.24 0.22 0.16 0.07 0.07 -0.01 -0.16 -0.30 -0.45
Total C02 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.55 3.32 3.79 3.94 3.75 3.27 2.83 2.42 2.22 2.01
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 133 144 154 161 165 158 153 148 149 150
N20 total MtN20-N 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.8 6.4
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 31.2 36.9 34.1 27.8 18.0 11.1 6.7 4.7 4.4 4.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 11 20 34 56 93 90 85 79 72 64
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 7 9 11 14 17 20 18 18 18 18
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 17 23 27 30 32 26 19 16 16
CO
MlCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN