Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

182 An Overview of Scenarios
"Shared Space" by the Millennium Institute (Glenn and
Gordon, 1997), resources are shared more equitably to the
benefit of all and the greater safety of humanity. The Shell
scenario "Sustainable World" (1989, see Schwartz, 1991) and
the World Business Council for Sustainable Development
scenarios (WBCSD, 1998), "Geopolity" and "Jazz," examine
sustainable futures.
Economic development in Bl is balanced, and efforts to
achieve equitable income distribution are effective. As in Al,
the Bl storyline describes a fast-changing and convergent
world, but the priorities differ. Whereas the Al world invests its
gains from increased productivity and know-how primarily in
further economic growth, the Bl world invests a large part of
its gains in improved efficiency of resource use
("dematerialization"), equity, social institutions, and
environmental protection.
A strong welfare net prevents social exclusion on the basis of
poverty. However, counter-currents may develop and in some
places people may not conform to the main social and
environmental intentions of the mainstream in this scenario
family. Massive income redistribution and presumably high
taxation levels may adversely affect the economic efficiency
and functioning of world markets.
Particular effort is devoted to increases in resource efficiency to
achieve the goals stated above. Incentive systems, combined
with advances in intemational institutions, permit the rapid
diffusion of cleaner technology. To this end, R&D is also
enhanced, together with education and the capacity building
for clean and equitable development. Organizational measures
are adopted to reduce material wastage by maximizing reuse
and recycling. The combination of technical and organizational
change yields high levels of material and energy saving, as well
as reductions in pollution. Labor productivity also improves as
a by-product of these efforts. Altemative scenarios considered
within the ВI family include different rates of GDP growth and
dematerialization (e.g., decline in energy and material
intensities).
The demographic transition to low mortality and fertility
occurs at the same rate as in Al, but for different reasons as it
is motivated partly by social and environmental concems.
Global population reaches nine bilUon by 2050 and declines to
about seven bilUon by 2100. This is a world with high levels of
economic activity (a global GDP of around US$350 trillion by
2100) and significant and deliberate progress toward
intemational and national income equality. Global income per
capita in 2050 averages US$13,000, one-third lower than in
AI. A higher proportion of this income is spent on services
rather than on material goods, and on quality rather than
quantity, because the emphasis on material goods is less and
also resource prices are increased by environmental taxation.
The ВI storyline sees a relatively smooth transition to
alternative energy systems as conventional oil and gas
resources decline. There is extensive use of conventional and
unconventional gas as the cleanest fossil resource during the
transition, but the major push is toward post-fossil
technologies, driven in large part by environmental concems.
Given the high environmental consciousness and institutional
effectiveness in the ВI storyline, environmental quality is high,
as most potentially negative environmental aspects of rapid
development are anticipated and effectively dealt with locally,
nationally, and internationally. For example, transboundary air
pollution (acid rain) is basically eliminated in the long term.
Land use is managed carefully to counteract the impacts of
activities potentially damaging to the environment. Cities are
compact and designed for public and non-motorized transport,
with suburban developments tightly controlled. Strong
incentives for low-input, low-impact agriculture, along with
maintenance of large areas of wilderness, contribute to high
food prices with much lower levels çf meat consumption than
those in AI. These proactive local and regional environmental
measures and policies also lead to relatively low GHG
emissions, even in the absence of explicit interventions to
mitigate cHmate change.
4.3.4. B2 Storyline and Scenario Family
The B2 world is one of increased concem for environmental
and social sustainability compared to the A2 storyline.
Increasingly, government policies and business strategies at the
national and local levels are influenced by environmentally
aware citizens, with a trend toward local self-reliance and
stronger communities. Intemational institutions decline in
importance, with a shift toward local and regional decisionmaking
stractures and institutions. Human welfare, equality,
and environmental protection all have high priority, and they
are addressed through community-based social solutions in
addition to technical solutions, although implementation rates
vary across regions.
Like the other scenario families, the B2 scenario family
includes futures that can be seen as positive or negative. While
the B2 storyline is basically neutral. Kinsman (1990) in his
"Caring Autonomy" scenario clearly paints a positive world
with emphasis on decentralized govemments and strong
inteфersonal relationships. In the "New Civics" scenario by
Wilkerson (1995), values are only shared within small
competing groups, which resuhs in a decentraHzed world of
tribes, clans, families, networks, and gangs. The IIASA-WEC
"Middle Course" scenario (Nakicenovic et al., 1998), with
slow removal of trade barriers, may also be grouped in this
family. On the positive side, this storyline appears to be
consistent with current institutional frameworks in the world
and with the current technology dynamics. On the negative side
is the relatively slow rate of development in general, but
particularly in the currentiy developing parts of the world.
Education and welfare programs are pursued widely, which
reduces mortality and, to a lesser extent, fertility. The
population reaches about 10 bilHon people by 2100, consistent
with both the UN and IIASA median projections. Income per